TIM FERKIN , MANAGING DIRECTOR , COTSWOLD ARCHITECTURAL PRODUCTS
» GIVEN THE ROLLERcoaster ride we ’ ve all been on since 2020 , trying to predict anything about the future feels like a bit of a fool ’ s errand these days .
But personally , I ’ m not one of those people who expects 2023 to be a terrible year for fenestration .
First , let ’ s start with some unavoidable facts . It ’ s highly likely that the year ahead will be more challenging than 2022 has been . The UK is almost definitely now in recession . The Chancellor certainly thinks so , and dedicated the entirety of his Autumn Statement to tackling it .
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And energy prices will probably remain high , causing hardship for millions of homeowners and businesses around the country .
But there are also more positive signs .
At the Glazing Summit , I listened to Barclays Chief Economist William Hobbs – after about twenty minutes of explaining how it ’ s extremely difficult to make predictions about anything – say that he
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suspects the current recession will be shorter and milder than many expect .
I ’ m no economist , but that ’ s my feeling too . And I strongly believe it ’ s vital we don ’ t talk ourselves into a recession that ’ s worse than it needs to be .
On the energy front – it ’ s true that millions will struggle , but meteorologists are predicting a mild winter .
That might not sound like much , but if winter
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temperatures are one degree warmer than average , that ’ s £ 1bn less Britain will have to spend on its heating .
And natural gas prices are falling . In October , that saw wholesale electricity prices fall from £ 165 per megawatt hour to £ 42 .
In fenestration and construction more generally , I suspect demand will fall , but that this will be counteracted to some extent by ongoing demand from the commercial sector . Beyond 2023 , I remain optimistic . The UK still needs millions more houses , and the net zero agenda will push large-scale retrofitting in both the public and private sectors .
I think the future of our industry is still bright .
www . cotswoldap . com
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40 JANUARY 2023 |
CLEARVIEW-UK . COM |