OUTBOUND TENDER REJECTIONS : GREEN LINE / TOTAL HOUSING STARTS : BLUE LINE
industry , with leisure and hospitality remaining the front-runners . The current headline trends for the unemployment rate , job openings , initial jobless claims , and positive results for consumer spending will fuel expectations for the Federal Open Market Committee ( FOMC ) to keep interest rates elevated for a prolonged period .
Any sudden contraction in the labor market will leave Americans exposed to record levels of debt . A rising trend is forming for delinquency rates , and increases in auto loan defaults are starting to surge . Student loan repayments will also take spending power away from Americans going into 2024 . Retailers will likely look to host more “ deal days ” and extended discounts to capture sales from consumers
who will be shopping for bargains . This can be some good news for the final-mile space as more retailers compete in the e-commerce space through competitive pricing . Retail sales will be another trend to watch , but it should be noted that the headline report is not adjusted for inflation , suggesting that minor increases within the report are actual declines . Elevated interest rates and depleted savings will limit big-ticket purchases .
Housing trends will be a segment of interest for the final-mile space due to the downstream impacts of new home acquisition . Typically , when a consumer moves into a new home , there is more spending on furniture , appliances and other goods that go into final-mile volumes . However , consumers will likely be more selective when shopping for new furniture and appliances .
The Flatbed Outbound Tender Rejection Index ( FOTRI ) from FreightWaves SONAR is updated in near-real time and will be an upstream indicator that will give an early signal on pertinent housing trends . A lower reading for the FO- TRI ( green line ) indicates that there is looser capacity for flatbed trailers , while an elevated reading indicates a tighter capacity environment .
Elevated mortgage rates will continue to be a sticking point for would-be homebuyers and are a critical reason for negative sentiment toward the prospects of acquiring a new home . Depleted existing home inventories and elevated mortgage rates will place some upward pressure on both
22 customized logistics & delivery Magazine I fall 2023