China's Belt and Road Initiative: Risk Outlook China's Belt and Road Risk Outlook | Page 7

Anaklia is set to become a significant hub for the Black Sea container trade . Security remains a concern , as the port is not far from the border of the Russian-backed breakaway republic of Abkhazia .
Romania and Bulgaria are seeking international investors for two bridge projects over the Danube River and a 200-kilometer motorway linking the Romanian port of Constanta with Varna and Burgas . Chinese companies will certainly take note . Going into next year , there ’ s talk of listing Portul Constanta for an IPO . With success elsewhere in the region , expect Chinese firms to look for ways to buy in .
China Harbor Engineering Company ( CHEC ) has expressed interest in investing into the Bulgarian ports of Varna and Burgas as reported by party members of GERB , the senior partner in Bulgaria ’ s governing coalition . The company would create industrial zones that would funnel trade from Chinese firms . But the GERB party – the senior partner of the governing coalition in power – suffered a setback as legislative gamesmanship with the Prime Minister led to speaker Dimitar Glavchev to step down . New developments for Chinese investments have stalled thus far .
MULTIMODAL ROUTE OUTLOOK
There is a hard ceiling Large container ships can ’ t approaching on China-Europe access the Caspian and it rail transit via Russia due to makes little sense to build budgetary strain in Russia and them there . This limits the a refusal to allow Chinese or economies of scale that can be other concessionaires to achieved and means that trade negotiate terms for projects . will largely be driven by the Barring significant network countries along the route upgrades , bottlenecks will based on the sectors of their hinder growth . The Trans- economies showing growth . Caspian route , however , But the BTK railway has made seems to set to keep it China ’ s preferred option for growing . In reality , the volume transshipment to Europe . of trade it can handle will always be constrained .
6
Ukraine also provides opportunities for China . CHEC already won a contract in May to dredge the approach to Yuzhny port near Odessa . China ’ s Sinohydro Corporation Ltd . recently won a contract to upgrade the Kyiv-Chop highway . The construction sector is up 23.4 % year-on-year as of October , worth $ 2.3 billion , and China is poised to competitively bid on port and highway projects . Infrastructure investment is needed to make up for economic losses imposed by the loss of the Donbas , Russia ’ s annexation of Crimea , and to build a foundation for sustained growth . The state of political and economic reforms in Kyiv are the best predictor of sustainability . Unfortunately , the outlook is mixed .