Peak Panic The End Is Always Near
34 // COMPANY DRIVER // AUGUST 2013
Busted!
Myths, Hoaxes & Conventional Un-Wisdom
By Tom Kelley
Peak Panic The End Is Always Near
About ten minutes after Edwin Drake drilled the fi rst commercial oil well in the US back in 1859, one of Ned Ludd’ s infamous followers, known as Luddites, fi rst declared that the world was sure to run out of( petroleum) oil in just a few short years.
Ever since that historical moment, we’ ve always been told that we would run out of oil in just a few years. Just a little less than a century after Drake fi rst struck oil, the“ chicken little” warnings were formally identifi ed with the pseudo-scientifi c title of“ peak oil.”
The term peak oil, fi rst coined by geologist Marion King Hubbert in 1956, suggests that at some point in the near future, that the maximum rate of oil extraction will be reached, and after that point, the rate of extraction would irreversibly decline until the planet ran
completely out of oil.
The problem with the peak oil theory, like most junk science, is that it needs to be prefaced with a huge disclaimer stating that“ IF nothing else changes,” peak oil extraction may be reached. The trouble for the peak oil theory is that in a pursuit as complex as oil exploration, extraction and production, nothing ever stays the same.
The most obvious change that has occurred in over 150 years is how far we’ ve gone to recover oil. Prior to the drilling of Drake’ s well, oil had been recovered from surface-level seepage, hand-dug pits, and occasionally as a byproduct of shallow wells drilled for water. Drake’ s well was unique in that it was drilled specifi cally to recover oil. Local natives had used the location near Oil Creek in Northwestern Pennsylvania for hundreds
34 // COMPANY DRIVER // AUGUST 2013
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