Catalyst | Digital
D
HOW IS COVID-19
IMPACTING THE
jobs market?
As recruitment stalls, there is an opportunity
for employers to take stock of existing
inequalities in accessing jobs and
opportunities, argues Pawel Adrjan,
head of EMEA research at Indeed.
How has the COVID-19 pandemic affected hiring
trends globally?
One of the pandemic’s effects has been a rapid decline in hiring. We saw
that clearly in job postings on Indeed around the world. Many businesses
had to shut down, while those that continued to operate suddenly faced
huge uncertainty around revenues, costs and the safety of their workforce.
Job postings fell by a third or more in most of the world’s largest economies
in a matter of weeks – a bigger and faster decline than during the financial
crisis of 2008.
Not all countries were affected equally. Those with a higher proportion of
the workforce able to work from home saw smaller declines in job postings.
The severity of the lockdown and government responses to the crisis also
played a role, both when the crisis first hit and now, in the recovery phase.
While European governments deferred the full impact of the crisis by
putting in place short-term job and wage support schemes, Canada and the
US relied mainly on supporting those who became unemployed. That may
also be one reason why hiring remains more subdued in Europe – where
employers are more likely to be recalling former staff than advertising
new jobs – than on the other side of the pond.
Job postings are recovering in Canada and the US
Job postings on Indeed in the G7 countries through 3 July 2020
(Gap vs.2019 trend, 1 Feb = 100)
0
-20
-40
WHO declares
COVID-19
outbreak a
pandemic
-60
1 Feb
15 Feb 1 Mar 15 Mar 1 Apr 15 Apr 1 May 15 May 1 Jun 15 Jun 1 Jul
Canada
Germany
Japan
US
France
Italy
UK
Which sectors saw a downturn in hiring and
which have seen an uplift?
In a major health and economic crisis such as this one, it is not surprising
that hiring in all sectors has been impacted in one way or another. Around
the world, we saw the biggest declines in sectors most affected by lockdown
restrictions, including hospitality and tourism, beauty and wellness and
non-food retail. For example, hospitality and tourism job postings on
Indeed were down 82% in Australia, 59% in Canada, 62% in the US and
80% in the UK relative to last year’s trend as of mid-April. These are
staggering numbers.
But hiring in some sectors held up quite well. Health and social care,
food retail, driving and delivery services all had to keep on going despite
(or because of ) the lockdown. They saw good levels of hiring activity
around the world. And some of the badly affected sectors have already
recovered in some countries. For example, retail and driving job postings
in the US are back to last year’s trend as of the beginning of July.
Hospitality and tourism job
postings on Indeed were down:
82 %
in Australia
59
%
in Canada
62
%
in the US
80
%
in the UK
I hope employers pay
special attention to those
sectors of society hardest
hit by the pandemic as they
focus on building a diverse
workforce for the future
What are your expectations for the future?
Like most economists, I expect the labour market to remain weak for the
foreseeable future. The OECD forecasts an elevated unemployment rate
in many countries this year and next. For many employers, this means
that the tight labour market is over, at least for now. They can expect a
high number of candidates for available jobs.
At the same time, there is still a lot of uncertainty about the virus and
how consumer spending and business investment will react as the crisis
unfolds. Even once we know we are safe, government actions will remain
key to supporting incomes, spending and the economic recovery. The
economy can still surprise, both on the upside and downside.
In the longer term, I hope the crisis gives us an opportunity to take stock
of existing inequalities in access to jobs and opportunities. Young people
and minorities have been hit hard by the effects of the lockdown in most
countries. They are more likely to be out of work and less likely to be able
to work remotely. Essential workers in sectors such as social care and
retail sales remain low paid, as our recent research on wages advertised
in the US and UK during the pandemic shows. I hope that employers and
governments pay special attention to all those sectors of society as they
focus on building a diverse workforce for the future.
Pawel Adrjan is head of EMEA research at the
global job site, Indeed, and a research fellow at
Regent’s Park College, University of Oxford. His
research on the labour market is available on the
Indeed Hiring Lab blog.