From top left to right:
Vangie Bhagoo-Ramrattan
Head, Research
Vangie.Bhagoo-Ramrattan@
firstcitizenstt.com
Kris Sookdeo
Analyst II (Research)
[email protected]
Subira Toppin
Analyst II (Research)
[email protected]
Ravi Kurjah
Analyst I (Research)
[email protected]
Samuel Agiste
Trader/ Liquidity Management
Officer
First Citizens Investment Services
(St Lucia)
Rajesh Ramroop
Research Assistant
Rajesh.Ramroop
@firstcitizenstt.com
Caribbean Markets
E
conomic growth in the Caribbean region remains subdued largely as a result of
slower tourism-related inflows as well as a decline in construction activity. The
region also continues to grapple with excessively high and onerous debt levels,
which in some countries have become unsustainable.
Trinidad and Tobago
Non-Energy Sector Boosts Overall GDP
The country’s non-energy sector continues to show positive
momentum, recording yet another quarter of expansion during
the second quarter of 2013. This is the ninth consecutive
quarter of expansion. Year on year, the non-energy sector grew
2.4% in Q213, the same rate as the previous three months.
The top three best performing sectors were finance (+5.3%),
manufacturing (+3.8%) and construction (+3.5%). For 2013 as
a whole, the manufacturing sector, which is the second largest
non-petroleum subsector, is projected to expand at a robust
6.1%, and its contribution to GDP expected to rise to around
9.2% from 8.8% in 2012.
The energy sector posted growth of 1.6% in the second
quarter of 2013, even as the petrochemicals subsector
recorded a significant contraction of 9.3%. Even as
production in some energy subsectors was up for the first
five months of the year, output subsequently contracted in
June and July and expectations are for the downward trend
to continue into the third quarter on account of scheduled
maintenance work in the sector.
24
Caribbean Investment iQ December 2013
Overall for the second quarter of 2013, GDP grew 2.1% (year
on year), compared to 1.6% recorded in the previous quarter.
The Ministry of Finance and the Economy estimates that GDP
will expand at a rate of 1.6% for the full year 2013, expected to
be supported by the non-energy sector.
Fiscal 2013 ended with an overall deficit on the government
accounts higher than the shortfall recorded in the previous
year. Total revenue amounted to TTD52.98 billion, exceeding
the previous year’s outturn by 7.5%, with oil revenue
accounting for approximately 38% of total revenue during
the year. Total expenditure amounted to TTD59.5 billion,
12.6% higher than the previous year. The current account
balance shrank by close to TTD2.2 billion, while the overall
fiscal balance ended with a deficit of TTD6.5 billion or