Caribbean Investment IQ December 2013 | Page 14

United Kingdom Provisional figures indicate that the economy of the United Kingdom grew by 0.8%(q/q) in the third quarter of 2013, following an increase of 0.7%(q/q) in the second quarter. On a year on year (y/y) basis, the economy expanded by 1.5% during Q3 2013 from 1.3% in Q2 2013. Growth was led by expansions in services (0.7%), manufacturing (0.9%) and construction (2.5%). The unemployment rate stood at 7.6% in September while inflation trended lower to 2.2% in October. The Bank of England had previously indicated that it would maintain its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% unless unemployment falls to 7.0% and if monetary and fiscal situations permit. As such, there is a possibility that the benchmark rate might be raised as early as 2015.The Bank of England has maintained its asset purchase target at GBP375 billion. On 19 April 2013, Fitch Ratings lowered the United Kingdom’s long term foreign currency and local currency credit ratings from AAA to AA+. The outlook for both ratings is ‘Stable’. The downgrade reflected the weaker economic and fiscal outlook with the agency forecasting general government gross debt peaking at 101% of GDP in 2015-16 and economic growth in 2013 and 2014 of 0.8% and 1.8% respectively. In April 2013, Standard & Poor’s confirmed its AAA rating with a ‘Negative’ credit rating outlook. Moody’s Investor Services maintains an Aa1 rating with a ‘Stable’ outlook. 14 Caribbean Investment iQ December 2013