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Retail Investor's Perspective
Similarly, for those concerned micro or craft producers will have a large presence, the recent announcement of hefty (if not crippling) fines for illegal pesticide usage may prove a disincentive.
Now that is not to say that growing one’s own, along with the black market, are not subtractions from the total legal market, but it seems highly improbable that growing one’s own plants will be overly material in the long run. The consequences of some black market and illegal activity includes fourteen-year jail sentences.
Contrarians and others with similar dire outlooks know that sooner or later that their dire predictions will hold some water because bull markets cannot endure forever and when a bearish period develops they can say “as predicted”. In many ways they are no different than paid promoters and influencers because they are counting on enough buying into their projection that it becomes self fulfilling prophecy and being able to say “I called it” garnishes them some perceived legitimacy. That is really no different than paid promoters/influencers who want to be able to demonstrate that their efforts indeed resulted in increased positive measurable investment activity. In statistics, that would be referred to as low to no correlation.
One cannot predict the future with 100% accuracy and especially a future built on collective actions by humans (like share price fluctuations). It is that simple. All through last year we read how it was too late to invest in this industry. Too late to invest in an industry that does not even legally exist as yet? Looking south and again at California, it was not until November that the stocks of companies in California ramped up as this Bloomberg article details. A former presence on BNN staked his image on such a contrarian hypothesis and even predicted a potential bear market in Canada spanning July 2017 into as late as 2019. Markets are cyclical by nature and anyone that predicts the market will turn (from Bull to Bear or Bear to Bull) eventually will be right … they may as well predict the sun will rise and set each day but they do so in order to capture the “called it” headline.