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Retail Investor's Perspective
Oftentimes, what some refer to a strong correlation turns out to be either a coincidence or simply fortuitous timing. Please note that the term coincidence is often misused as it actually means two or more events happening at a similar time and these events are apparently unrelated – emphasis on the word “apparently”. Here is an example from my own life. I have played poker for decades. I built, with the help of a friend, a custom poker table using only high-end materials such as speed cloth and it even has sunken cup holders. The wood under the speed cloth has multiple coats of water resistant and mold resistant paint. I have won at tournaments, home games, and in league play. I have never lost a hand when holding the Dead Man’s Hand. Now, am I good poker player or maybe just lucky? You would need to know more about the tournaments and the league including the number of participants and the calibre of talent as well as they number of such events. How often have I been dealt the Dead Man’s Hand and who was still in the hand against me and what cards did they have? Was I a dominant chip leader and could bully the table? Were these cash games or tournament style? Were they played in Casinos? Were they friendly fundraisers for sports teams and charities with most players having very little experience? If they were cash games was it pocket change being risked only? Suddenly, the entire dynamics of these otherwise true statements changes based on that other information. And what does building a poker table have to do with any of that?