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Aphria Inc. (TSX:APH)
Last month I wrote a paragraph about Supreme which was less to do with charting and more to do with an observation I had made on the “crowd” that was forming around the “buy Supreme for license announcement upside” people that I saw on various boards and all over my twitter feed. Here is what I said:
“After being halted on Friday and over the weekend they announced a bit of clarity surrounding their sell license but not the “we got a sell license” that many investors were/are continuously hoping for. When I see everyone on social media start to celebrate and say things like “sticking my sell order at $2 and $3 for when it spikes to the moon on licensing” the second the company announces a halt (only for that license to not actually come) the contrarian in me starts to wonder why/how the “sell license” will make the stock immediately run up there.
With a market cap that is already priced over sizable LPs who have had their sell license for multiple years, one could certainly make the argument that their value has “sell license” priced in as an inevitable guarantee. Moreover, it would appear as though many investors are positioning themselves to “be in early” and “sell the inevitable pop” on license news as opposed to seemingly none who are “waiting it out to enter”, all the while the stock continues to slide. Perhaps I should widen my horizons in terms of who I follow but I would say I have a decent grasp as to the play people are trying to make here. I write this not to offend people but to point out the fact that I follow and speak to many cannabis investors and this is one of the most crowded “ideas” I can think of. “