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VET & TAFE drinks, or other gifts, from even the most eminent providers. This ultimate snub might tip a few training providers over the edge: being tainted by association with rogues might inflame high-quality organisations, leading to unprecedented tensions and schisms arising amongst the family of training providers.
To the horror of rogue owners of training providers, and the naive bureaucrats and gullible politicians, this social media campaign might be fanned by the brave whistleblower staff who have worked for shonky providers and have decided to publicly air their views. These whistleblowers might be emboldened by their peers who featured on the various ABC 7.30 reports in early 2015. Over the next year, these accounts of corruption might become even more graphic – far
worse than providers wandering into aged-care homes and signing up residents for VET FEE-HELP – and the trickle of whistleblowers might turn into a flood.
During the recent state elections in Victoria and Queensland, the media developed a liking for stories about how the VET sector is ripping off unsuspecting students. If more whistleblowers become willing to appear on television or talk on radio, the next year might bring a wide range of new types of media stories about VET, including reporters and journalists going undercover inside training organisations, disguised as students or staff members, in order to obtain more spectacular revelations about corrupt activities.
The social media campaign by students and the media stories fed by the whistleblowers might exert enormous pressure on the assistant minister for education and training, Simon Birmingham, who had been encouraged to believe that his swift but random actions, such as reducing deceptive marketing in VET, had been enough to scare away the rogue operators. Under pressure, the minister might then turn on his advisers and challenge the narrative they have penned for him, including that the VET system was largely in good shape and that some dashing ministerial initiatives and media releases would fix the few remaining issues.
Political rifts widen Such escalating controversies over the coming months might also place unbearable pressure on the Senate’ s inquiry into private providers, causing deep rifts in the ranks of Senate investigators. Those senators on the extreme end of the spectrum of moral indignation might call for closing down the current sector and starting again. The senators with a more measured approach might call for a temporary suspension of the VET FEE-HELP scheme, simply to identify those providers that have no strategy other than to recruit students to incur a debt.
To the horror of rogue owners of training providers, and the naive bureaucrats and gullible politicians, this social media campaign might be fanned by the brave whistleblower staff who have worked for shonky providers and have decided to publicly air their views.
Shonky provision might come under even further scrutiny when the education minister, Christopher Pyne, restarts the political debate on reforms to the higher education sector. Those people opposed to VET providers moving into the higher education space and obtaining funding previously reserved for universities might gleefully point to the scandals as an example of what would happen if the funding rules were relaxed.
In the 2016 federal election, the Rescue TAFE push that helped the ALP win office in Victoria in late 2014 and in Queensland in early 2015 might be replaced by a Rescue VET campaign by the federal ALP and Restart VET by the Greens. However, by the time of the 2106 election campaign, the Coalition might be so embroiled in scandals arising from the abolition of the Industry Skills Councils and their replacement by various industry bodies, it might not find a way to take a clear position on the future of the system.
Additionally, the Coalition might be so busy fighting back against media revelations concerning the selection of these new bodies that national decision-making in the VET system could become paralysed.
The revelations might be around apparent conflicts of interest for members of the selection committee and the winners, with most attention focused on donations to the federal Liberal party over the last five years.
Another development over the next year might be the raising of concerns about the independence of ASQA and whether undue political influence was being placed on it. For example, questions could be asked about the extraordinary delay in the release of its strategic audit of training in the field of childcare, a sensitive field of particular interest to parents and grandparents. A successful freedom of information request to ASQA to disclose any documents related to the childcare report might reveal a deliberate attempt to provide a bland report and tone down the findings. The FOI might also provide some insights into unexpected politicking behind the scenes intended to ensure that the report did not embarrass any particular government.
Loopholes are closed A particularly bold prediction for the next year is that the loopholes that allow rogue providers to have a picnic might be forensically identified and closed. These loopholes have been outlined previously in this column and include the low quality of online learning, even in life-threatening subjects, the paucity of training conducted in industry settings by some cut-price providers, the lack of industry knowledge of some teaching staff, the inadequate assessment practices in many providers and the difference in the duration of courses offered by different providers for the one qualification.
Unfortunately, of all of the predictions in this column, this one sounds the most preposterous, and the fun of staring into the VET crystal ball is starting to dissipate as murky reality beckons.
One final, daring prediction is that the government might change its mind and require every training organisation to have access to at least one suitably qualified person who can perform the role of the accountable education officer; that is, one qualified educator in a leadership position. Sadly, of all the above predictions, that one is probably the absolute least likely to occur. The crystal ball has become foggy and the fun has gone from the exercise completely. n
Dr John Mitchell is a VET researcher and analyst. Go to jma. com. au
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