policy & reform
Future skill demands
As the pace of change accelerates in our workplaces, we must make sure we are skilling up in ways that are going to match future needs. By Philip Bullock
It’ s never been easy to predict which skills and qualifications are going to be in demand in the future.
And as Australia adjusts to keep pace in an increasingly technological and competitive world, predicting how the future will look seems even more difficult.
Amidst the uncertainty, a new report by the Australian Workforce Productivity Agency( AWPA) throws some light on the type of capacities and level of skills Australians will need in the years to 2025.
Future focus, 2013 National Workforce Development Strategy uses four scenarios to look at potential future demand for skills and qualifications. AWPA commissioned Deloitte Access economics to model The Long Boom, Smart Recovery, Terms of Trade Shock and Ring of Fire scenarios to develop projections of demand for jobs and skills in Australia’ s workforce in the years to 2025.
Despite their differences the scenarios throw up common findings on the skills and capacities Australians will need if they are to prosper in the new world of work. The influence of new technologies, globalisation, an emerging Asia and our ageing population will be pervasive in the workforce of tomorrow and will determine new patterns of work and mobility.
Professional and managerial occupations will grow fastest, while health care and social assistance, professional, scientific
26 | April 2013 and technical services and education and training will be Australia’ s most rapidly expanding industries.
As well as higher qualifications, non-industry specific skills such as flexibility, adaptive capacity, teamwork, leadership and entrepreneurial skills will be increasingly sought-after.‘ Work-ready’ graduates with industry-based training experience will also be highly valued.
Growing call for greater skills Future focus modelling shows demand for higher qualifications will increase in Australia in the years to 2025.
Currently almost 60 per cent of our workforce has a post school qualification. Under the three higher growth scenarios, this is projected to increase to more than 70 per cent.
Under boom conditions, industry demand for undergraduate qualifications will increase by 4.1 per cent each year.
If the global downturn depresses growth in Australia over the next couple of years, demand for undergraduates will still increase annually by 3.3 per cent.
Similarly, demand for diplomas and advanced diplomas is set to increase by 3.7 per cent per year under a long boom, and by 3.3 per cent even under a lower growth scenario where commodities prices drop and the economy restructures.
Lifting public and private investment in our tertiary sector by at least three per cent per year will bring economic and social benefits which far outweigh the costs.
Higher skills bring new synergies to workplaces and will be needed to drive up Australia’ s lagging innovation and productivity rates.
Thirty per cent of innovative Australian businesses have identified a lack of skilled people as a barrier to innovation, and this must change.
Leadership and management skills will be increasingly in demand to ensure that skills are used to best advantage to promote innovation and productivity.
In skilling up our population Australia needs to make sure people with lower qualifications are not left behind and that they are supported to progress to higher levels. Likewise, less advantaged sectors of our population will need more support to engage in education.
The need to be flexible and adaptable The notion of a‘ job for life’ is largely a thing of the past with over 50 per cent of Australians staying in their jobs for less than five years and around 24 per cent of our workforce now employed on a casual basis.
In the future, demand for flexibility and mobility from both employers and employees is likely to increase as our