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Despite the severity of the current crisis , it seems not a case of if international students will return but when .
Half empty
Predictions Australia will lose half its international students .
By Wade Zaglas
New modelling by education
policy think tank Mitchell Institute at Victoria University shows a 50 per cent drop in Australia ’ s international student numbers by mid-2021 if the country ’ s borders remain closed .
The 50 per cent drop , which equates to roughly 300,000 international students , was a key finding in the institute ’ s latest paper , Coronavirus and International Students , authored by Dr Peter Hurley .
At the moment there are approximately 210,000 fewer international students in Australia than would normally be the case .
“ From the 29th of March to October 25th 2020 , there was a reduction of around 75,000 currently enrolled international students . As of October 25th 2020 , there were approximately 135,000 international students outside Australia and 400,000 in Australia ,” the report says .
“ Modelling based on the rate of decline experienced in the first six months of the pandemic suggests that , compared to October 2019 , there will be an approximate 50 per cent reduction in international students inside Australia by July 2021 .
“ If the travel restrictions remain in place until July 2022 , the modelling suggests about 165,000 international students will remain inside Australia , a reduction of over 410,000 compared to October 2019 .”
The report showed the slump in international student numbers is affecting all major cities across Australia , although in slightly different ways . In Melbourne , for instance , universities in the central city area are experiencing the greatest drop in international student numbers , while in Sydney “ the reduction is more evenly spread across the city ”.
“ Generally , it is inner-city areas and suburbs near university campuses that have the largest populations of international students ,” the report says .
“ However , the Mitchell Institute research also showed that many outer suburbs had significant populations of international students , especially those areas with more affordable housing and good public transport links .”
According to the report , the biggest reduction in international student numbers has occurred in New South Wales ( -79,719 ), followed by Victoria ( -66,855 ). However , the biggest proportional fall has occurred in the Australian Capital Territory , where there is a high “ proportion of Chinese international students ”.
The Mitchell Institute report also emphasises that plummeting international student numbers is not just a problem affecting university revenue . The bulk of annual revenue ( 57 per cent or $ 21.4 billion ) generated from the international student market comes from the goods and services spent in the wider economy .
Applications for international students visas are also well down , with the report finding they are about 10-20 per cent of what they were last year at the same time . The report ’ s author concludes there is “ little pent-up demand , dashing hopes for a quick recovery ” even if the borders begin to open in the near future .
“ International student enrolments function like a pipeline . Many international students begin in a pathway or English language course before progressing to a formal VET or higher education ,” the report says .
“ The process can take several years . As some international students finish their courses , new international students commencing their courses replace them .
“ The coronavirus has severely disrupted this pipeline . There has now been a compromised intake for semester one 2020 and a missed intake for semester two 2020 .
“ It seems likely that there will be another missed intake for semester one 2021 with the earliest possible resumption of onshore commencements occurring in semester two 2021 .”
Another critical topic the report addresses is the implications of declining international student numbers for Australia ’ s migration policy in the future .
“ Despite the severity of the current crisis , it seems not a case of if international students will return but when ,” Hurley says .
“ It seems wise to add how to the discussions , so Australia rebuilds with a more sustainable international student education model that delivers benefits for everyone , including international students .” ■
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