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Weighing it up
VU economist looks at the relative merits of locking down or completely opening up the economy .
Glyn Wittwer interviewed by Wade Zaglas
When UNSW Economics
Professor Gigi Foster appeared on ABC TV ’ s Q & A program in late July , she triggered a storm of criticism .
Sitting alongside medical experts , Foster advanced the argument that lockdown measures would hurt the economy and individuals ’ mental health so much that it could – in the longer term – lead to poorer quality lives , reduced labour productivity and health complications that could burden the health system and lead to early death .
In short , the situation could be worse , and a particular number of people may have to die to avoid this scenario .
Unsurprisingly , some panellists and community members interpreted Foster ’ s argument as an attack on the sanctity of human lives , with one panellist calling her argument " abhorrent ".
To explore this debate further , Campus Review spoke to another economist about this highly controversial issue : Glyn Wittwer , a professor at the Centre of Public Policy at Victoria University .
While he acknowledges that locking the economy down for a period of time will inevitably lead to economic losses , he argues that “ COVID-19 deaths are a very high price to pay ”.
For Wittwer , the virus presents “ a tradeoff ” and Australia “ may have to learn to live with manageable levels of the virus in the absence of a vaccine ”.
Wittwer also discussed a number of economic theories that can evaluate the risks of completely opening up the
At some point , the damage of restrictive services through not treating other conditions may outweigh the damage of COVID-19 .
economy , including opportunity costs , comparative advantage and putting " a value on human years lost ".
For the economist , neither completely locking down nor completely opening up is the appropriate thing right now : it ’ s all a matter of degrees of trade-offs .
CR : Are arguments made by the likes of Gigi Foster and former PM Tony Abbott that living with the virus may be less harmful than trying to aggressively suppress or eliminate it a reasonable consideration ? GW : Managing the virus requires tradeoffs . So , if we lock down for a period of time , there will be economic losses . That said , COVID deaths are a very high price to
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