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People in WFH occupations will be more likely to live further from city centres if their weekly commuting costs are lower .
Growing pains
VU modelling predicts working from home could lead to urban sprawl and economic disparity .
By Wade Zaglas
Modelling by Victoria University has predicted that if work-fromhome policies ( WFH ) continue after COVID-19 is controlled or eliminated , the country ’ s urban sprawl will continue , job flight to our biggest cities will increase , and there will be more economic disparity between regions .
New modelling led by senior research fellow Dr James Lennox at VU ’ s Centre of Policy Studies ( CoPS ) centred on the impacts “ on-going work from home will have on Australian housing trends and jobs ”.
Lennox said working from home a few days a week could become the norm in many occupations , with a recent survey showing that a majority of Australians expected to continue WFH practices after the crisis .
In an article for The Conversation , Lennox said that “ more than 67 % of 1,006
Australians polled in April for an NBNcommissioned survey said they expected to work from home more after the coronavirus crisis ends ”.
“ Many businesses are sold on the concept too , with mounting evidence working from home can boost productivity ,” he added .
VU ’ s modelling found that roughly 30 per cent of Australia ’ s jobs , as classified by the Australian Bureau of Statistics ( ABS ), that are in professional , managerial or clerical occupations have “ high work-fromhome ( WFH ) potential ”. The distance from the office and where such employees live will become less important , the modelling assumed .
“ Our modelling indicates people in WFH occupations will be more likely to live further from city centres if their weekly commuting costs are lower . The net effect is to shift housing demand outward ,” Lennox said .
However , Lennox was confident that business offices would not disappear entirely . As he attests , “ personal interactions still provide crucial benefits – but working two , three or four days a week from home could be well become the norm in many occupations ”.
VU ’ s modelling on this topic came up with two key conclusions . First , if commuters are “ commuting less often [ they ] will be prepared to commute further ”. Lennox contends this will increase urban sprawl and “ boost populations of communities within acceptable commuting distances ”.
The other conclusion the modelling revealed was “ while the population will spread out , many jobs are likely to go in the opposite direction , as more organisations set up shop in central business districts ”. In other words , the most fruitful business prospects will remain in the major cities , but the populations will be far more prepared to live farther out on the urban fringes .
The modelling revealed that residential areas will expand 3.6 per cent nationally . While this will boost growth and jobs in some of our major cities , including Sydney , Melbourne , Brisbane and Canberra , it will have a depressing effect for the economies of our other cities , towns and rural areas , Lennox contended .
“ With there already being significant economic disparities between city and rural areas , and between different regions , these new trends pose a further challenge for policymakers ,” Lennox said .
One of the many challenges is the expense of providing infrastructure to service swelling outer urban populations . Also , from an environmental perspective , Lennox argues there are important issues to address .
“ On the urban fringes of our cities , exposure of people and property to fire and other natural hazards has often been inadequately managed ,” he says .
“ In many coastal regions , urbanisation is driving loss , degradation and fragmentation of ecosystems and decline of native plants and wildlife species .
“ Costs like these could outweigh the benefits of working from home unless governments can deliver more sustainable forms of urban growth .” ■
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