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Baby bust
ANU expert predicts there will
be no ‘corona’ baby boom.
By Wade Zaglas
Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic,
one of the more positive predictions
was it could provide couples with an
opportunity to spend more time together,
resulting in a baby boom akin to the postwar
years.
But according to a piece written for
The Conversation by Australian National
University (ANU) demographer Liz Allen,
the idea might sound comforting but it is
unlikely to occur. In fact, Allen asserts that
the opposite will happen, with Australians
delaying having children because of the
pandemic and its attendant challenges.
Interestingly, however, while a baby
boom is not on the horizon, a poll of
United States citizens released in June
indicated a slight case of COVID-19 induced
sexual enlightenment, with more than
half the couples surveyed reporting more
“adventurous” action in bed. In Australia,
too, COVID-19 has not dampened sexual
desire, with the ABC recently reporting
increases in sales at adult stores and strong
activity on dating apps.
NOT THE RIGHT INGREDIENTS FOR
A BABY BOOM
However, as Allen points out, sex is not
the only ingredient needed to produce
a baby boom. An uptake in people
partnering and a reduction in individuals
using contraception (which hasn’t been
evidenced) are the necessary ingredients.
The fact that former meeting spots
like bars and pubs are either closed
or restricted from time to time also
diminish the ability for prospective couples
to meet.
Another point Allen argues is that isolation
with a partner is likely “to strain, not nurture,
relationships”. Add to that the economic
conditions of the time – “including the
inability to have basic needs, like toilet
paper, met and record unemployment also
means even established, happy couples are
likely to postpone having children”. Sadly,
too, these isolated conditions have also
coincided with a spike in domestic violence
against children.
This is not the first time that birth rates
have dropped dramatically due to a
catastrophic event. In the Great Depression,
for instance, rates dropped from around
three births per woman to two.
A DEMOGRAPHIC DISASTER?
Australia’s birth rate was already in decline
before the pandemic and we can expect
it to only exacerbate the trend, Allen
contends. This, she argues, is a “huge
worry” as a birth rate below 1.5 “is well
below the replacement level and places the
future tax base at risk”.
“Simply put, we won’t have enough
people to work and pay taxes and fund all
the roads, hospitals and welfare initiatives
we need to function as a country.
“This is a demographic disaster, leading
to declining socioeconomic well-being.
Future generations will have to cover the
bill for far more than we have had to,
meaning the Australia they inherit will be
worse off.”
A worrying fact, Allen identifies, is that
once birth rates fall under 1.5, they normally
don’t “bounce back”, as social norms
relating to children and family sizes begin
to change and incentives no longer work.
A new family size becomes "normal".
“While countries typically rely on
increased immigration to balance
demographic and workforce needs, this
may not be possible in the same way, due
to the pandemic,” Allen says.
HOW DO WE RECOVER?
Allen argues that a post-COVID recovery
will require substantial efforts to “build and
invest in the demographic culture of the
new nation, now and into the future”.
“This means we need to help families
achieve their intended family size. The
provision of accessible childcare, adequate
support for the long-term unemployed
and financial supports for people
accessing IVF are just starters,” the ANU
demographer says.
“It’s going to be a rough road ahead.
Sadly, for many Australians, it will be marked
by significant personal heartache, with the
ripple effects felt at a population level.” ■
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