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$1652 in May. In something of a rarity,
those Australians in the lowest household
income bracket are enjoying the greatest
percentage gains.
Hope on the horizon
New research suggests pandemic
fallout could have been worse.
By Wade Zaglas
Government intervention to soften
the economic impact of the novel
coronavirus has helped stop further
job loses, according to a new analysis from
the Australian National University.
The research shows that the more
confident job outlook has given Australians
a much-needed shot in the arm.
The analysis uses “a first-of-its-kind
longitudinal survey” that ANU began in
April, showing that more than 670,000
individuals had lost their jobs due to the
pandemic and the subsequent economic
fallout – “an unprecedented drop”.
Promisingly, the survey shows that there
have been no net job losses since April, with
employment hovering around 58 per cent.
The ANU survey also highlights that
Australians who are employed are working
slightly more hours, going from 32.3 hours
per week when the survey began to 32.8
hours in May.
Study co-author Professor Nicholas
Biddle from the ANU Centre for Social
Research and Methods said policies like
JobKeeper seem to be arresting the
economic impact of the coronavirus and
keeping Australians in jobs.
EMPLOYMENT
“Compared to many other countries,
it would appear that the employment
outcomes of Australians have not been
as affected as we might otherwise have
feared,” Biddle said.
“It shows the extraordinary economic
measures taken by the government appear
to be helping stem the hit to employment
caused by this global pandemic.
“But we aren’t out of the woods yet.
While job and employment prospects
haven’t worsened over the last month, they
also haven’t improved.
“Australians are still less likely to be
employed and working fewer hours than
prior to the spread of COVID-19.
“It will be a long, hard slog until the
Australian labour market fully recovers to
its pre-pandemic levels.”
SECURITY
One of the survey’s most promising findings
is that Australians are feeling more secure
about their jobs. One in five Australians,
20.6 per cent, now expect to lose their jobs
in the next year, while in April it was close to
one in four, or 24.4 per cent.
“The fact that employment outcomes
have not continued to worsen appears to
have translated into a significantly more
positive outlook for the future within the
Australian workforce,” Biddle said.
“In May 2020, 39.2 per cent of Australians
assessed the chance of losing their job as
being zero. This is a large increase from
April, when just over a third (34.6 per cent)
said the same.”
The survey also reveals that household
after-tax weekly income has improved
slightly, increasing from $1622 in April to
FINANCIAL STRESS
The ANU analysis also shows that financial
stress in households has dropped a little,
from 22.0 per cent in April to 20.8 per cent
in May.
The researchers believe that “steady
economic and employment prospects”
have contributed to Australia’s overall
wellbeing.
“Our analysis shows that as economic
conditions have stabilised, Australians’
life satisfaction and outlooks have also
improved,” study co-author Professor
Matthew Gray said.
“In January, Australians’ life satisfaction
was 6.98 from a scale of 10. This dropped
to 6.51 in April but has bounced back to
6.86 in May.
“Life satisfaction appears to be almost
back to what it was prior to the spread of
COVID-19 in Australia.”
ANXIETY
There’s been a drop in Australians worrying
about the pandemic, “with 57.4 per cent
saying they were worried or anxious as a
consequence of COVID-19”.
This is a steep drop since April, when
a reported 66.4 per cent of Australians
said they were anxious or worried about
COVID-19 and its flow-on effects.
“However, young people are still doing it
tough,” Gray said. “Our analysis shows that
18 to 24-year‐olds still feel the most anxious
about COVID-19. In April, 76.7 per cent of
them felt this way – the largest percentage
of any age cohort in the country.
“In May, this remains the case, with
65.1 per cent of 18 to 24-year-olds feeling
anxious or worried. This is still by far the
largest age group to feel this way.”
Gray said this “isn’t surprising”, as this age
cohort has been the most heavily impacted
by COVID-19 and its economic fallout.
He also believes this age group will
continue to feel the brunt of the economic
impact “for many years to come.”
The survey is part of the ANU Centre for
Social Research and Methods COVID-19
impact monitoring program and takes in
the views of more than 3200 Australians.
A full report is available on the centre’s
website at csrm.cass.anu.edu.au. ■
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