Campus Review Vol 30. Issue 03 | March 2020 | Page 18

INDUSTRY & RESEARCH campusreview.com.au Lay of the land ABC photographer Matt Roberts reacts to seeing his sister’s destroyed house in Quaama, NSW. Photo: Sean Davey, AAP UTAS professor on the complexities of land management practices in bushfire mitigation. David Bowman interviewed by Wade Zaglas I n part three of our series on the megafires that brought destruction to Australia this summer, Campus Review spoke to Professor David Bowman from the University of Tasmania, a world authority in land management practices. He talked about the challenges of reducing fire loads, the ability of megafires to overcome fire containment lines, and a question that is leading to intense debate in the field: Will more controlled burning lead to greater carbon emissions in the atmosphere than intense bushfires or even megafires in the future? And what will be the implications of this? 16 One of the salient points Bowman makes is that Australia’s landscape is not an idealised, homogeneous environment that makes controlled burning easy. As he puts it, Australia is not a “frictionless surface” – it’s full of tropical areas, grassy plains, deserts, and a whole host of other complicating factors. He also warned that the scale of controlled burning required to establish firebreaks across the country would be “mind-boggling”. CR: We know that controlled fire burning can help contain the spread of some fires, but what about megafires? DB: This is one of the big questions in applied fire science that we’re still struggling to answer. And the recent fire event in eastern Australia has given us a treasure trove of data and opportunities to help in teasing apart these factors. The standard premise is that you can’t control the weather, but you can control fuel and you can partly control ignitions. You have ‘total fire ban’ days, but you are going to get lightning, and accidents, and bad actors causing ignition. The fatalistic view is that there will be ignitions, so there will be fires in the landscape. The idea is that if you can reduce the fuel – that’s why sometimes prescribed burning or hazard reduction burning is called fuel reduction burning – you can reduce fuel loads. The question is, what does that achieve? One optimistic view is that it creates a fire barrier, so it stops the fires spreading across the landscape. A more realistic view is that it probably changes the behaviour of the fire, particularly the intensity, making it more amenable to control or suppression. And making the fire behaviour less extreme increases the odds of asset survival, and to a certain degree human survival, because the intensity of the fire is lower. And because the intensity of the fire is lower, suppression activities can take place, because after a certain point all known technologies cease to be of any relevance. So the idea of fuel management is to drive down the intensity and give fire managers more options and capacity for control. Unfortunately, it gets very complicated very quickly. On the one hand, does it stop the fires? The idea is that you can use fuel reduction burning to create barriers. Freshly burned areas are barriers, but it’s not possible to have barriers everywhere. Most people don’t promote the idea that fuel reduction burning is creating barriers just because of the practicality. If you think about it, how would you be able to generate that much freshly burned country to fend off a wildfire? It boggles the mind. In the lead-up to the fire season, how could you treat such a huge amount of area to create freshly burnt firebreaks? So it’s not practical, but people can confuse that. They think that fuel reduction burning is creating firebreaks. It can and does create firebreaks; it’s just the scaling issue that is mind-boggling. The second point of fuel reduction is that the behaviour of the fire is likely to change because there’s less fuel to burn. However, there are two really important caveats that are misunderstood. The first is the live fuels. The landscape is complicated. It’s got terrain, vegetation, water courses – all sorts of complexities. It’s not just a frictionless surface. The models that are often used discount that complexity, particularly the live fuel, the vegetation. If you start burning an area to reduce its fuel, you will reduce it, particularly in a dry forest. You will reduce the amount of