BusinessDay Nigeria BusinessDay 18 Jun 2018 | Page 15

Monday 18 June 2018
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BUSINESS DAY
15
In Association With
Kim Jong Won
Dealing with North Korea, Trump puts showmanship first
The summit was a triumph of showbiz over substance—and Mr Trump made big concessions for no return
A
S A television
spectacle, it was
irresistible. The
star of “The Ap-
prentice” striding
commandingly along the
red carpet, reaching out his
hand, ready to strike the deal
of a lifetime. And grasping
it, Kim Jong Un, the leader
of the world’s most repres-
sive dictatorship, his Mao
suit, hairstyle and grievances
imported directly from the
1950s, who just nine months
before had promised to “tame
the mentally deranged US
dotard with fire”. In the end,
fire did not prove necessary:
a suspension of weapons-
testing and an invitation to
a summit was all it took.
President Donald Trump said
it was an “honour” to meet
Mr Kim, who duly promised
“complete denuclearisation”
in exchange for security guar-
antees. It was, Mr Trump said
at a press conference, “a very
great moment in the history
of the world”.
To the extent history is
playing any part in all this,
it is in its tendency to repeat
itself. North Korea has prom-
ised disarmament again and
again over the past 30 years,
only to renege each time after
pocketing generous induce-
ments. If the flimsy agree-
ment Messrs Trump and Kim
signed in Singapore is to turn
out differently, as Mr Trump
insists it will, America must
be clear-eyed and exacting in
the detailed nuclear regime
that it negotiates with the
North. Alas, so far Mr Trump
seems more eager to play the
talks for ratings—threatening
not only a meaningful deal,
but also America’s position
in Asia.
One unquestionably good
thing did come out of this
week’s summit. Talking is
much better than the belliger-
ent exchange that went before
it (see Briefing). War appears
to be off the table, and for that
the world can be grateful.
The other good thing is that
glimmer of hope. You can
never completely dismiss the
idea that Mr Kim does mean
to change direction. Still in
his 30s (like much about him
and his country, his exact
age is a mystery), he may be
daunted by the bleak pros-
pect of a lifetime of nuclear
brinkmanship. For his regime
to endure, he needs enough
wealth to buy conventional
weapons and pacify the ur-
ban middle class, which in
recent years has begun to en-
joy some meagre luxuries. He
may also be uncomfortable
about his country’s reliance
on China for everything from
oil and remittances to the
plane that flew him to Singa-
pore. If Mr Kim sees nuclear
weapons partly as bargain-
ing chips, his investment in
warheads and the missiles
needed to carry them as far
as the United States makes
this his moment of maximum
leverage. Now would be the
time to talk.
Mr Trump was right to test
this possibility. The potential
prize includes not just the
step back from war talk, but
the removal of a persistent
threat to Asia and, lately, the
United States. Also, given
China’s disputes with Amer-
ica over trade and security,
North Korea could become a
template for how the two su-
perpowers can work together,
to everyone’s benefit.
Measured by such aspira-
tions, however, Singapore was
a disappointment. Mr Trump
boasts of the tremendous
achievement of simply be-
ing there; in reality the North
wanted talks all along. For Mr
Kim, the offer of a meeting as
equals with the sitting presi-
dent of the United States—ex-
ternal validation of his god-
like status at home—was an
unexpected and long-desired
windfall. He could have used
the summit as a signal that
he means to overturn the
North’s record of deceit. But,
despite supposedly intense
pre-Singapore negotiations,
this week’s agreement con-
tains no binding North Ko-
rean commitments.
“Complete denuclearisa-
tion” sounds good, but the
North did not set out a timeta-
ble. It may, as in the past, take
the term to refer to the with-
drawal of American troops
from South Korea, or even to
when America itself disarms,
as it is in theory bound to
do under the Nuclear Non-
Proliferation Treaty (NPT)—
which, incidentally, the North
has abandoned. Nor did the
agreement mention verifica-
tion. Mr Trump’s team insists
this will be intrusive, but Mr
Kim’s “proof” of destroying
test sites has so far involved
letting a few journalists watch
at a safe distance. Verification
must involve inspectors with
the right to visit any of North
Korea’s hundreds of facilities,
civilian and military, at short
notice. Mr Kim’s willingness
to accept such a regime is the
real test of whether the agree-
ment is serious.
Worryingly, Mr Trump
seems determined to be the
deal’s salesman. At the press
conference, as he gushed
about Mr Kim’s qualities,
he announced that Ameri-
ca was unwisely cancelling
military exercises with South
Korea while talks with the
North were under way. As the
South’s partly conscript army
needs frequent training to
remain battle-ready, that was
a big concession for which
he appears to have received
nothing. Mr Trump says that
sanctions on the North will
remain until the process of
disarmament is irreversible.
He also acknowledges that
China is already enforcing
the sanctions less diligently
(it is also arguing for further
loosening)—“but that’s OK