Business Today 6th May 2018 | Page 4

FROM THE EDITOR http :// www . businesstoday . in

Getting Oil on Track

R

ecent economic data shows that the Indian economy has put the disruptions caused by the demonetisation of specified banknotes in november 2016 and the introduction of the Goods and Services tax in July 2017 firmly behind it . the Index of Industrial Production shows that manufacturing is improving . the Wholesale Price Index and consumer Price Index show that inflation is under control . the GDP growth for 2018 / 19 should be anywhere between 7.3 per cent and 7.6 per cent , according to different forecasts . there are , of course , potential dangers , including a trade war triggered by US President Donald trump . But a bigger danger could be the relentlessly rising crude prices . the BJP-led nDA government had been very lucky in its first three years as far as crude prices were concerned . It had taken charge when crude was still over $ 100 a barrel in mid-2014 . But it started falling quite sharply and dropped below $ 30-a-barrel by early 2016 . the dropping prices allowed the Modi government to raise excise duties on crude and shore up its finances , reduce its current account deficit and help tame inflation to an extent . But since 2017 , crude prices have been inching up . In 2018 , it rose further and has hit three-year highs so far – at almost $ 70 a barrel .

India imports almost all the oil it consumes . It has become the world ’ s largest crude oil importer . Its oil demand is going up by 4-4.5 per cent each year . As the economic Survey of 2018 points out , India has two underlying macroeconomic vulnerabilities – its fiscal and current accounts . And both tend to deteriorate when oil prices start rising .

Rising oil prices threaten India ’ s current account deficit , its GDP growth , its fiscal stability and its inflation . there is no real shortage of oil but prices are rising because the OPec countries and Russia are keeping production low to prevent oil prices from falling too low . And while rising shale oil production in the US is expected to help in cooling down oil prices , it is still some time away .

How can the government tackle problems created by rising oil prices and India ’ s dependence on imported oil ? the government is trying a number of steps – ranging from changing the energy mix to move to a higher usage of gas ( which is cheaper and also a cleaner fuel than oil ) to diversifying the areas it buys oil from to taking up equity in oilfields around the world and improving India ’ s own production of oil and gas .

It will take some time for these different steps to show results , but the beginning has been made .

prosenjit . datta @ intoday . com @ ProsaicView

Editor-in-Chief : aroon purie Group Editorial Director : Raj Chengappa

Editor : prosenjit Datta Group Creative Editor : Nilanjan Das , Group Photo Editor : Bandeep Singh Managing Editor : Rajeev Dubey Deputy Editors : Venkatesha Babu , anand adhikari

special projects and events Senior Editor : anup Jayaram

correspondents Senior Editors : p . B . Jayakumar , Nevin John , Goutam Das , Mahesh Nayak , ajita Shashidhar , Joe C . Mathew Senior Associate Editors : E . Kumar Sharma , anilesh Mahajan , Dipak Mondal Associate Editors : Manu Kaushik , Sumant Banerji Senior Assistant Editor : Nidhi Singal Special Correspondent : Sonal Khetarpal

research Principal Research Analyst : Niti Kiran

copy desk Senior Editors : Mahesh Jagota , Rishi Joshi Associate Editor : Sanghamitra Mandal Assistant Editor : Sapna Nair purohit Chief Copy Editor : Gadadhar padhy Senior Sub Editor : Devika Singh

photography Photo Editor : Reuben Singh Deputy Chief Photographer : Shekhar Ghosh Principal Photographer : Rachit Goswami Senior Photo Researcher : Sudhansh Sharma

art Assistant Creative Editor : Safia Zahid Associate Art Directors : amit Sharma , ajay Thakuri Chief Designers : Raj Verma Senior Designer : Devender Singh Rawat

production Chief of Production : Harish aggarwal Senior Production Coordinators : Narendra Singh , Rajesh Verma

library Assistant Librarian : Satbir Singh

Publishing Director : Manoj Sharma Associate Publisher ( Impact ): anil Fernandes

impact team Senior General Manager : Jitendra Lad ( West ) General Manager : Upendra Singh ( Bangalore ) Kaushiky Gangulie ( East )

Marketing : Vivek Malhotra , Group Chief Marketing Officer ; Vipul Hoon , General Manager

Newsstand Sales : D . V . S . Rama Rao , Chief General Manager ; Deepak Bhatt , General Manager ( National Sales ); Vipin Bagga , Deputy General Manager ( Operations ); Rajeev Gandhi , Regional Sales Manager ( North ); arokia Raj L , Regional Sales Manager ( South )

Vol . 27 , No . 9 , for the fortnight April 23 to May 6 , 2018 . Released on April 23 , 2018 .

Editorial Office : India Today Mediaplex , FC 8 , Sector 16 / A , Film City , Noida-201301 ; Tel : [phone] ; Fax : [phone] Advertising Office ( Gurgaon ): A1-A2 , Enkay Centre , Ground Floor , V . N . Commercial Complex , Udyog Vihar , Phase 5 , Gurgaon-122001 ; Tel : [phone] ; Fax : [phone] ; Mumbai : 1201 , 12th Floor , Tower 2 A , One Indiabulls Centre ( Jupiter Mills ), S . B . Marg , Lower Parel ( West ), Mumbai-400013 ; Tel : [phone] ; Fax : [phone] ; Chennai : 5th Floor , Main Building No . 443 , Guna Complex , Anna Salai , Teynampet , Chennai-600018 ; Tel : [phone] ; Fax : [phone] ; Bangalore : 202-204 Richmond Towers , 2nd Floor , 12 , Richmond Road , Bangalore-560025 ; Tel : [phone] ; Fax : [phone] ; Kolkata : 52 , J . L . Road , 4th floor , Kolkata-700071 ; Tel : [phone] ; Fax : [phone] ; Hyderabad : 6-3-885 / 7 / B , Raj Bhawan Road , Somajiguda , Hyderabad-500082 ; Tel : [phone] ; Ahmedabad : 2nd Floor , 2C , Surya Rath Building , Behind White House , Panchwati , Off : C . G . Road , Ahmedabad-380006 ; Tel : [phone] ; Fax : [phone] ; Kochi : Karakkatt Road , Kochi-682016 ; Tel : [phone] ; Fax : [phone] Subscriptions : For assistance contact Customer Care , India Today Group , A-61 , Sector-57 , Noida ( U . P .) - 201301 ; Tel : [phone] from Delhi & Faridabad ; 0120-2479900 ( Monday-Friday , 10 am-6 pm ) from Rest of India ; Toll free no : 1800 1800 100 ( from BSNL / MTNL lines ); Fax : [phone] ; E-mail : wecarebg @ intoday . com

Sales : General Manager Sales , Living Media India Ltd , B-45 , 3rd Floor , Sector-57 , Noida ( U . P .) - 201301 ; Tel : [phone] ; Fax : [phone] © 1998 Living Media India Ltd . All rights reserved throughout the world . Reproduction in any manner is prohibited .

Printed & published by Manoj Sharma on behalf of Living Media India Limited . Printed at Thomson Press India Limited , 18-35 , Milestone , Delhi-Mathura Road , Faridabad-121007 , ( Haryana ). Published at K-9 , Connaught Circus , New Delhi-110 001 . Editor : Prosenjit Datta

Business Today does not take responsibility for returning unsolicited publication material . All disputes are subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of competent courts and forums in Delhi / New Delhi only

For reprint rights and syndication enquiries , contact syndications @ intoday . com or call + 91-120-4078000

www . syndicationstoday . in