OPINION : SOUTH AFRICA ' S ECONOMY
The ANC has evolved as a movement that hoisted the banner of liberation for the black majority
ereign credit downgrade in December this year . The convoluted manner in which policy is determined by the ruling African National Congress through its opaque national general council and national policy processes do not help to inject confidence . General elections , which could be a massive wake up call for the governing party , will only take place in 2019 . By then a great deal of damage would have been inflicted on the economy .
The challenges
The National Treasury is gradually losing its authority and lacks high level political support . In fact it is seen more as a nuisance than a necessary guardian of public finances . With Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan under threat from the country ’ s elite police unit , the Hawks , it is difficult to see how the National Treasury can confidently lead economic change .
The Economic Development Department under Ebrahim Patel lacks a distinct mandate . It is difficult to quantify its role and impact on the economy . It was poorly conceived from the beginning and is unlikely to last beyond Zuma ’ s administration .
One noticeable imprint that the Minister of Mineral Resources Mosebenzi Zwane has had as a cabinet minister has been his threat to set up an inquiry into the banking sector for severing ties with Gupta-linked businesses . What is not known is his impact on his portfolio , the mining sector , which has been bleeding , and directionless since 2012 .
In its 2016 analysis of the South African economy the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) concluded that the country ’ s economic vulnerabilities had become heightened . It highlighted poor economic growth and financially weak state owned enterprises as key areas of concern .
The IMF also noted with concern rising government debt and the widening of the current account deficit which shows the country is spending beyond its means . South Africa ’ s current account deficit is cause for concern . And it ’ s likely to get worse given the gathering wave for free tertiary education . Public sector wage bargaining , due in less than two years ’ time , will put upward pressure on government debt . Sober leadership is required to respond to all these challenges .
Some of the measures proposed by the IMF to turn South Africa ’ s economy around include structural reforms , for example by ensuring more competition in the economy , inclusive labour market reforms , quality education and training , and improved governance so as to build confidence and boost growth , create jobs , lower inequalities and reduce vulnerabilities .
The reality is that there is nothing in the IMF ’ s report that has not been counselled to decision-makers before . The core problem is the absence of leadership that is well equipped to manage a complex , modern economy that is plagued by acute socio-economic challenges .
Urgent need for political change
The governing African National Congress has reached its limits . It is incapable of reforming itself . It has ceased to be an agent for economic restructuring and transformation , and has instead become inward-looking , with those at the helm concerned only with extracting value for themselves rather than changing the lives of citizens for the better .
There is a deep yearning among South Africans for change in the political landscape . The results of the recent local government elections have shown this . They demonstrated that , through competitive democracy , people can claim their power back from unaccountable elites .
This suggests that there is a fertile ground to nurture the emergence of new political formations ready to contest power . These could crystallise in a number of ways : through the merger of existing political parties , through coalitions , or through a further breakup of the governing party .
Another critical force that could ignite change is civil society . But the outcome might be far from perfect . Civil society is usually a collection of disparate interests and ideological persuasions that are sometimes irreconcilable . As imperfect as it is , there is no better agency than civil society to foreground social change .
And black intellectuals need to play an activist role in society . They can assume the responsibility of pushing for progressive change beyond the ANC era upon which the sun is gradually setting .
Beyond the ANC
The ANC has evolved as a movement that hoisted the banner of liberation for the black majority . Its symbols , songs and theory of struggle occupied a place of pride in the minds and hearts of many black South Africans . It has now lost its moral and intellectual ground to define the future and claim the mantle of leadership . More than ever before , South African politics cries out for moral renewal and transformational leadership . Civil society and intellectuals have an opportunity to shape society differently , and to give birth to ideas that could frame a new social and political order . Mzukisi Qobo is Associate Professor at the Institute for Pan African Thought and Conversation , University of Johannesburg .
2016 | Business Times Africa 15