Business First May-June 2017 Business First May 2017 | Page 30

THOUGHT LEADERSHIP
Contemplating Brexit
we need to face
uncertainty
by Ulster University Visiting Professor Simon Bridge
t is natural to try to anticipate the future in
order to prepare for it. A simple example
might be our anticipation of summer for
which we might prepare by buying a new
wardrobe and booking a holiday ­ but what
should we do to prepare for Brexit?
The difference between our anticipation of
summer and that of Brexit is that we can be
reasonably sure that the warmer weather will
come but the eventual working out of Brexit
seems much more uncertain.
Normally when faced with uncertainty we
look for predictions and often for that we
resort to a number of ‘logical’ means such as
extrapolation from what has happened in the
past. Past experience has taught us that the
sun will rise each morning and that spring
will be followed by summer – so we can
reliably predict those sequences of events.
An extension of this is when we find an
apparently scientific explanation for events ­
such as when Newton formulated his law of
gravity which, when combined with a
heliocentric view of the solar system, enabled
him to predict the movement o