BUSINESS FIRST NORTHERN IRELAND ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2017
Don ’ t Predict
RESOLVE in 2017
by Profesor Simon Bridge
I
t is customary at the start of a new year for journals , and soothsayers , to try to predict the future , while the rest of us just try to make New Year resolutions and often similarly seem to fail in our execution .
Failure to follow resolutions may be the result of a lack of will , but predictions usually fail because forecasters face a different problem .
They generally make their assessments based on the assumption that the future will follow the course indicated by an extrapolation from present trends but historians know that trends rarely continue for long and that , sooner rather than later , something unexpected will happen which will take us in a new direction . In other words , a study of the past tells us that the future is largely unknowable until it is experienced .
That is clearly the case now . Following the Brexit vote and the election of Donald Trump , and their yet to be determined outcomes , should we still try to use the present as a guide to the future or should we accept that such attempts are foolhardy ?
If the future is unexplored and essentially unknowable then the sensible response would seem to be to accept it as uncertain and prepare accordingly .
I suggest that , to start with , there are four things which can be done when operating in uncertain conditions : know where you are and where you want to go and be open to opportunities to get you there and ready to take those opportunities when they become apparent . Then you might find that , although you can ’ t predict the future , you can help to shape it .
SO WHERE ARE WE ?
One thing that both the Brexit vote and the Trump election revealed is that there is a significant , but apparently unexpected , disconnection between large sections of each population .
Whether you agree with the Brexit and / or Trump results or not , and the electorates do seem to be relatively evenly divided on each issue , what seems now to be obvious is that a significant divide in opinion exists and that divide , if not recognised and addressed , will worsen to the detriment of all of us .
Then where I suggest that we want to go is to a situation in which we have trust : trust in each other , trust in the application of fair laws by an impartial judicial system , and trust in the overall rule of an inclusive government .
Without that trust many of the everyday processes of living are not easy , never mind doing business . Divisions , if not honestly acknowledged and addressed , will damage trust . Therefore , if that is so and we need to improve trust , then we need to recognise the deep divisions exposed by the events of 2016 and we need to start to address them .
WHAT IS GOING ON ?
I suggest that to a large extent the divide is there because there has not been dialogue and that a combination of things has been preventing communication and trust , including , for instance :
• A feeling on each side that the other side won ’ t listen – because they think they are right or don ’ t want to discover or admit that they might be wrong . This is the sort of situation in which , because the other side seems to be impervious to reasonable argument , there appears to be no point it trying dialogue .
• This feeling of being in the right may
38 www . businessfirstonline . co . uk