By Professor Brian Haddock Lead on Investigations and Research Proposals, National Weather Team, Network Rail
The Transformation of Managing Weather in the UK Rail Industry
I seek to demonstrate the transformation that is now taking place within the UK rail industry in paving a new way in the management of adverse and extreme weather in the face of a changing climate.
The transformation is more than just an engineering one. It is about a transformation of culture. Throughout the history of rail travel in the UK men and women have trained to manage major incidents from terrorist attacks at stations to the evacuation of derailed trains. There are an army of trained staff who hold these competencies and are tested on them regularly. However, how many of our rail staff are trained to interpret a weather forecast, or have the right competencies around risk reduction planning?
Managing incidents is important and can save lives but reducing the risk of incidents in the first place by thorough analyses and planning is vital. Quite often a weather forecast will highlight a risk by breaching a set threshold well in advance of the event itself. Much of our operational planning prior to the event is focused on preparing to respond. For example, if a lowpressure system forecasted to impact Cornwall in two days-time was highlighted to the Western Route Operations Control, teleconferences would be held and assurance that resources were available to respond to the potential impact of the low-pressure system would be checked. Wind gusts breaching the thresholds of extreme weather would invoke actions such as having mobile operations managers and vegetation management resource at the ready with chainsaws, prepared to remove any trees that might fall foul the running lines. Equally, trains may be requested to run at a reduced speed, or the line closed entirely over the period that the wind gusts are forecasted to arrive across the geographical forecast area.
For many years Routes and train operators have agreed these mitigations and implemented them when certain weather thresholds are breached in a two to five-day forecast provided to the rail industry by the specialised forecast provider to all controls daily. Weather forecast information is being used in a single dimension. It provides a‘ heads up’ so that resource can be mobilised. Could we not use the historical forecasts and historical observed( actual) weather data to pre-empt the effect of each forecasted weather event? Can we learn to anticipate or even measure the impact of a forecasted weather event to move the focus on managing weather events to a more proactive rather than reactive approach?
Much has been learnt over the last ten years regarding the management of natural hazards such as earthquakes.
“ The ways in which we deal with hazards are too often primarily reactive – following a disaster, we engage in search and rescue. There is no denying that these activities reduce loss of life and property and need to be continued. However, a move to a higher level of hazard reduction will require increased efforts to anticipate disasters and their effects”. 1
An increased effort to anticipate disasters before they become disasters is to understand the point or points of failure and to seek to reduce or even eradicate them, where possible. Essentially this requires information, complex information that requires analyses at a holistic level. It is not about the inspection of individual assets or the tolerance specification of a new installation. It is, instead about gaining an understanding of how the railway comes together as a system and how that systems health or‘ homeostat’ is regulated by the environmental factors that impact it every second of every day over years and years. This of course includes factors well outside of the railway boundary fence such as adjacent land use; water systems; geological and topographic influences; and social; economic and political factors. Once we start to understand the systemic vulnerabilities to our homeostat, we can begin to measure its true health and plan to keep it optimal.
1
E A Keller & D E DeVecchio Natural Hazards 2019 Pg24
www. ciro. org
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