BuildersOutlook2024Issue6 | Page 12

12 BuildersOutlook 2024Issue6

Single-Family , Multifamily Production Headed in Opposite Directions Across Geographies

Fueled by a lack of existing inventory and pent-up demand , single-family permit growth is occurring across all tracked geographic regions of the nation while the opposite holds true for the multifamily sector , according to the latest findings from the National Association of Home Builders ( NAHB ) Home Building Geography Index ( HBGI ) for the first quarter of 2024 .
“ While single-family construction expanded in the first quarter despite higher mortgage rates , multifamily construction for 2024 is experiencing a notable slowdown primarily because financing
conditions are tight and there are more than 900,00 apartments under construction , near the highest rate since 1973 ,” said NAHB Chairman Carl Harris , a custom home builder from Wichita , Kan . “ This is the first time since the inception of the HBGI that all tracked multifamily geographic areas registered negative permit growth rates .”
“ The strength in single-family construction at the start of the year was particularly concentrated in higher density areas , as return-tooffice trends lifted demand in inner suburbs ,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz . “ This
corresponds with other data indicating a gain for townhouse construction at the start of 2024 . In contrast , the apartment construction slowdown is disproportionately affecting higher density markets , where high levels of construction inventory , elevated costs , and tight financing is impeding multifamily supply .”
The HBGI is a quarterly measurement of building conditions across the country and uses county-level information about single- and multifamily permits to gauge housing construction growth in various urban and rural geographies .
Total single-family permits in the first quarter across the U . S . stood at approximately 240,500 , which is 23.8 % higher than the level in the first quarter of 2023 ( 194,200 ). The growth rates for all of the HBGI geographic regions were positive in the first quarter , with five of the seven posting doubledigit gains .
Breaking down the nation ’ s seven metro and county areas , the first quarter HBGI shows the following market shares for singlefamily home building :
• 16.1 % in large metro core
counties
• 24.9 % in large metro suburban counties
• 9.6 % in large metro outlying counties
• 28.8 % in small metro core counties
• 10.0 % in small metro outlying areas
• 6.5 % in micro counties
• 4.2 % in non-metro / micro counties
The first quarter HBGI shows the following market shares for multifamily home building :
• 37.6 % in large metro core counties
• 26.8 % in large metro suburban counties
• 3.6 % in large metro outlying counties
• 24.1 % in small metro core counties
• 4.0 % in small metro outlying areas
• 2.8 % in micro counties
• 1.1 % in non-metro / micro counties The full HBGI data with geographic market shares and growth rates can be found at nahb . org / hbgi .