VOL 2024 ISSUE 3
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VOL 2024 ISSUE 3
BUILDERSOUTLOOK
PUBLISHED BY THE EL PASO ASSOCIATION OF BUILDERS : NATIONAL , STATE AND LOCAL HOME BUILDING INDUSTRY NEWS
Peak national house price appreciation may be behind us
December dip in mortgage rates may have pushed prices in many markets to new peaks , yet some markets remain well below prior peaks
First American Data .
First American Data & Analytics , a leading national provider of property-centric information , risk management and valuation solutions and a division of First American Financial Corporation ( NYSE : FAF ), released its January 2024 Home Price Index ( HPI ) report . The report tracks home price changes less than four weeks behind real time at the national , state and metropolitan ( Core-Based Statistical Area ) levels and includes metropolitan price tiers that segment sale transactions into starter , mid and luxury tiers . The full report can be found here .
January House Price Index Highlights The First American Data & Analytics ’ nonseasonally adjusted ( NSA ) HPI showed that nationally in January [ 1 ] 2024 :
• Between December 2023 and January 2024 house prices increased 0.3 percent .
• House prices increased 7.2 percent between January 2023 and January 2024 .
• House prices reached a new peak for the tenth month in a row in January 2024 .
• Annual house price growth peaked in December 2023 at 7.7 percent .
“ The pace of annualized home price appreciation peaked in December , as buyers rushed to take advantage of falling mortgage rates . In January , the preliminary estimate of annualized appreciation cooled modestly by half a percent and is likely to slow down further in the coming months ,” said Mark Fleming , chief economist at First American . “ Despite concern that house prices could decline significantly at the beginning of 2023 , rate-locked potential home sellers kept supply tight , maintaining pressure on prices . Optimism that mortgage rates will fall in 2024 may incent more homeowners to sell , boosting supply and , in turn , improving affordability for buyers . While more supply and improved affordability should cool post-pandemic hot house price appreciation , 2024 may still be the year that house price appreciation doesn ’ t get too cold , but closer to just right .” The pace of annualized home price appreciation peaked in December , as buyers rushed to take advantage of falling mortgage rates . In January , the preliminary estimate of annualized appreciation cooled modestly by half a percent and is likely to slow down further in the coming months .” – Mark Fleming , Chief Economist , First American .
January 2024 House Price Stat Highlights
• The five most populous states experienced the following year-over-year growth in the HPI : Pennsylvania (+ 8.4 percent ), Florida (+ 6.1 percent ), Texas (+ 5.3 percent ), California (+ 4.4 percent ), and New York (+ 4.4 percent ).
• There were no states with a year-overyear decrease in the HPI .
January 2024 House Price Local Market Highlights
• Among the 30 Core-Based Statistical Areas ( CBSAs ) tracked by First American Data & Analytics , the five markets with the greatest year-over-year increase in the HPI are : Nassau County , N . Y . (+ 10.7 percent ), Anaheim , Calif . (+ 10.2 percent ), Warren , Mich . (+ 9.6 percent ), Miami (+ 9.4 percent ), and Pittsburgh (+ 8.8 percent ).
• Among the 30 Core-Based Statistical Areas ( CBSAs ) tracked by First American Data & Analytics , there were no markets with a year-over-year decrease in the HPI .