PUBLISHED BY THE EL PASO ASSOCIATION OF BUILDERS : NATIONAL , STATE AND LOCAL HOME BUILDING INDUSTRY NEWS

Federal policy changes could impact real estate in

Hedging their bets , Redfin economists put the number Either way , mortgage rates are not expected to plummet surprising ways , but economists are predicting fairly between 4.1 and 4.4 million . " We ' re presenting an next year : modest shifts in the new year . unusually wide sales range this year because while high • Mortgage rates will average about 6.4 %, dropping to Forecast season has arrived , but for housing market housing costs may price out some would-be buyers ,

6.25 % by the end of 2025 ( Bright MLS ). economists , 2025 may be one of the more challenging there ' s a fair amount of pent-up demand in the market ," • Rates will hover around 6.3 % most of the year , ticking years to predict . they said in their forecast . downward in the fourth quarter ( Realtor . com ).

One reason ? It ' s a transitional year for the country . A What about new homes ? If regulations ease , builders • Rates will remain around 7 %, hampering affordability for new presidential administration will be sworn in next may increase production ; fresh inventory could accelerate many ( Redfin ). month , and many expect an economic shakeup . During his sales , particularly since builders have greater flexibility Zillow didn ' t commit to any particular percentage , but campaign , Donald Trump made a number of declarations around financing and other incentives . said to expect more ups and downs throughout the year , about tariffs , immigration , tax cuts and construction Price growth will slow noting that mortgage rates rarely followed the expected regulations ; while it ' s too soon to know how ( or if ) these If new home construction does surge , that will mean path in 2024 . proposals will translate to policy , economists generally more overall inventory in some markets , potentially cooling Commissions , consolidation and a shifting market agree they could lead to a risk of higher inflation , deterring off prices . Economists are still predicting year-over-year Beyond the numbers , economists weighed in on other future rate cuts and keeping mortgage rates elevated . growth , but it may vary widely by market and the pace is aspects of the market and industry .

" There will be competing pressures in 2025 , creating a expected to be slower than in recent years . Here are their Agent commission rates will fall in 2025 , predicts Redfin , tug-of-war that could impact the housing market in forecasts : particularly for luxury homes and in competitive markets . surprising ways ," said Lisa Sturtevant , Bright MLS Chief • Home prices will rise 3.1 % in 2025 . While some

At an industry level , consolidation will increase , Redfin Economist . While pent-up supply and demand are waiting economic upheaval is expected , no major risks have economists said , because the Federal Trade Commission to be " unleashed ," they may be constrained by " economic emerged that would cause prices to fall ( Bright MLS ). under the new administration is expected to be more uncertainty and political unpredictability ," Sturtevant noted . • Prices will end the year 3.7 % higher , continuing the willing to approve deals among larger companies . Despite that uncertainty , economists from Zillow , Redfin , growth trend that started in 2012 ( Realtor . com ).

More balance will return to the market , at least in some Realtor . com and Bright MLS are placing their bets on how • Price growth will continue at a clip similar to the second areas , said Danielle Hale , Realtor . com chief economist . the real estate market will fare in the coming year . half of 2024 , increasing 4 % ( Redfin ). Where inventory is more limited , " sellers still have the

Home sales will get back above 4 million

• Home values will increase 2.6 %, a much slower rate than upper hand in terms of negotiating prices ," but where

The annualized rate of existing home sales has previous years ( Zillow ). affordability is an issue , that could mean " longer selling remained under 4 million since June — far below the 6 + Mortgage rates will stay above 6 % times or price reductions in some markets ," Hale said . million rate seen in 2020 and 2021 . But there seems to be Rates have defied expectations for the past few years . Zillow highlighted the Southeast as a market that now a consensus among economists that sales will improve in Predictions for 2023 were wildly off , and several 2024 favors buyers , and expects that trend to spread to the 2025 , though opinions differ on how much : forecasts put mortgage rates in the 6-6.5 % range by yearend . That would require a big drop in the next few weeks , sharply , said Chief Economist Skylar Olsen , because

Southwest . But all bets are off if mortgage rates fall

Existing home sales will rise 7.5 % to 4.4 million for the year ( Bright MLS ). as rates have been stuck at around 6.8 %. demand could again outstrip supply and increase A modest 1.5 % increase will push sales just over the While the Federal Reserve is still expected to make competition among buyers . threshold to 4.07 million ( Realtor . com ). multiple rate cuts in 2025 , that could change if inflation Learn more from pur source : www . realestatenews . com Sales will rebound slightly , ending the year at around 4.3 rises in response to Trump policies , as economists have million ( Zillow ). suggested .

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