PUBLISHED BY THE EL PASO ASSOCIATION OF BUILDERS : NATIONAL , STATE AND LOCAL HOME BUILDING INDUSTRY NEWS

Housingwire . com By Sarah Marx

family construction units next year , while BTIG ’ s persistent lack of resale inventory will help buoy In some ways , 2023 was the year of the managing director and homebuilding analyst demand for new single-family construction .

homebuilder . There wasn ’ t much

Carl Reichardt expects 980,000 new singlefamily units . For new home sales , BTIG multifamily construction will post a significant

Meanwhile , many factors indicate that competition from existing homeowners . And with the ability to buy down consumers ’ forecasts 705,000 sales , while Zonda expects decline in 2024 . First of all , 2023 saw the mortgage rates while still maintaining new home sales to remain flat year over year . largest number of apartments under

The pipeline construction ever recorded since 1973 . double-digit margins , new construction grew Depending on the source , the U . S . remains Additionally , rent growth is slowing and the to comprise roughly 30 % of total housing deficient by anywhere between 1.5 million and vacancy rate in rentals is increasing . The inventory in 2023 , more than double a 7.3 million housing units due to a severe lack of biggest headwind that homebuilders will normal year . supply produced between 2012 and 2019 . confront when it comes to multifamily This year , even with the boom in new-home construction is the tight financing conditions in

The business appears durable , too . Many of construction , “ we ’ re expecting a number multifamily development . the top national homebuilders have rosy somewhat below 900,000 for single-family home In terms of sales volume , Dietz expects that forecasts for the coming year . starts ,” Robert Deitz , the chief economist of the new home sales will comprise 15 % of

“ The new home market has been National Association of Homebuilders , told transactions on the market in 2023 . extraordinary in 2023 , and I think heading into HousingWire in August . “ We need to build “ We believe both of those figures will decline

2024 , we ’ re going to have the golden age of above 1.1 million to start reducing our deficit .” in 2024 as resale inventory increases with new home construction ,” David O ’ Reilly , CEO of In short , the pipeline of new single-family declining mortgage rates ,” Dietz said .

Howard Hughes , said in a recent CNBC homes isn ’ t anywhere close to reaching demand For more than a decade , housing has suffered interview . but there is some encouraging news . a structural shortage of homes rooted in supplyside issues . Labor shortages , lot shortages ,

Most housing market forecasters believe that Privately‐owned housing units authorized by the existing home-sales market will likely only building permits in November were at a lending issues , cost of lumber and materials as improve slightly next year . Let ’ s look at the new seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.46 million , well as legal and regulatory barriers have made construction forecast for 2024 . roughly 2.5 % percent below the revised October it difficult to deliver more homes to the American Housing starts rate of 1.49 million , but 4.1 % above the market . Dietz estimates that the U . S . is short of

Economists believe that 2024 will be a slightly November 2022 rate of 1.40 million .

1.5 million homes right now . better year than 2023 for homebuilders , but that

Single‐family authorizations in November were Over the past few years , single-family some headwinds will persist , especially for nonpublicly traded builders , who lack the at a rate of 976,000 , 0.7 % above the revised construction ramped up , starting in 2021 as a October figure of 969,000 . Authorizations of strong demand kicked in and supply chain economies of scale and access to capital units in buildings with five units or more in issues were resolved . Both in 2021 and 2022 , markets that their larger cohorts possess . November were at a rate of 435,000 . there were over 1 million new single-family At around 30 % now , the homebuilding

While permits for single-family construction starts nationally . By contrast , in the decade industry is likely near the peak level of newhome sales as a share of the entire housing were at their highest level since May 2022 , new 2009 through 2019 , there was an average of apartment construction permits were down 21 % 660,000 single-family homes constructed each market , according to industry experts who compared to last November and are at their year . spoke with HousingWire in August . lowest level since October 2020 .

This year will probably be a little slower than In terms of housing starts , a key measure of

Data on residential permits suggest that new 2022 , with an expected 950,000 new singlefamily starts when the full data is in . The slower coming inventory , National Association of single-family housing construction will continue

Realtors ’ Chief Economist Lawrence Yun to be robust heading into 2024 , while apartment construction of new , single-family homes can be forecasts 1.04 million new single-family construction will be slow . explained partly by the sharp increase in new construction units in 2024 . Ali Wolf , Zonda ’ s

According to Dietz , the long-term housing apartment construction in 2023 . chief economist , predicts 930,000 new single- deficit , coupled with lower mortgage rates and a Private builders will face more headwinds in

2024Issue1 BuildersOutlook 9

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Jerry Lund , " Mr . Magnificent ", has moved on to join his beloved wife , Terry . He is survived by their 4 children , Tracy ( John ), Cyndi ( Mike ), Tim ( Rosie ) and Kristy ( Louis ). He has 5 grandchildren and 5 great grandchildren .

Jerry was a 20 year resident of Las Cruces , and was a Teacher at Unity of Las Cruces . He came here from Kansas

City , MO , where he worked and studied at Unity Village . He and Terry were deeply religious and their ministry touched so many . Before going to Unity , Jerry was a home builder in El Paso . He worked for several companies in the 60s and 70s before forming his own company , Jerry Lund , Builder . He has estimated that in all that time he was involved in building over 1000 homes . Jerry served as President of the Association of Home Builders ( 1987 ) . He was also a proud Navy veteran of WWII . Jerry ' s positive outlook on life was infectious and could bring sunshine into anyone ' s cloudy day . He always left people with the wish for them to have a " Magnificent week !" He was known to all as , " Mr . Magnificent .".