Elliot Eisenberg Economic & Policy Blog

Tortured Taxation Increasing personal income tax rates across-the-board by 10 % without any income exemptions would raise $ 221 billion / year in new revenue . With a $ 100,000 / year exemption , this policy would raise $ 166 billion / year . With a $ 250,000 / year threshold , revenue growth is $ 90 billion / year , and at Biden / Harris ’ $ 400,000 / year threshold , which excludes 95 % of all payers , revenues raised are only $ 71 billion / year . Exempting large portions of the tax base seriously stymies revenue raising , forcing other tax increases .

Data Dissonance While inflation is barely 2.5 % Y-o-Y , unemployment is just 4.1 %, and incomes are rising , voters are sour on the economy . Here , I think , is why . Median income in 2023 rose to $ 80,610 , but it ’ s still below the 2019 $ 81,210 inflation-adjusted peak . And , sure , overall inflation is low , but

Y-o-Y food and energy ( things we buy all the time ) inflation peaked at 40 % in 2022 , its worst showing since 1979 !

Debt Delinquencies The latest NY Fed Survey of Consumer Finances is slightly worrying as it reports the percentage of households who think they will be unable to meet their debt obligations over the next three months is 14 %. This is the highest percentage since 16 % in 4 / 20 . The percentage has steadily risen from a low of 10 % in 2021 to 12 % in 2023 , to now 14 %. More households continue to struggle .

Election Expenses Estimate are that $ 15.9 billion , a new nominal record , will be spent this election cycle . This total includes congressional races , outside money from super-PACs , and money spent by the two presidential campaigns . In real terms , the $ 15 billion spent during the 2020 cycle will remain tops as it works out to over $ 18 billion today . Based on the 154.6 million voters in 2020 , $ 15.9 billion works out almost $ 103 / voter .

Puck Prices The costliest place to watch a hockey game is Toronto , where they haven ’ t won a Cup since 1967 . There it costs a family of four , for tickets , drinks , hot dogs , parking , etc ., a staggering US $ 704 , followed by Las Vegas at $ 677 . In NYC , watching the Rangers costs $ 617 . The median is $ 406 . The most affordable location : Miami , where watching the Stanley Cup champions costs , almost inexplicably , $ 299 .

Government Growth Through the first 11 months of FY24 , federal spending rose $ 392 billion or 7 %, while revenues increased by a healthy but smaller 5.5 %. Debt service rose by $ 227 billion and Social Security / Medicare increased by $ 174 billion . Other categories that bumped up were defense , which increased by $ 52 billion and veterans ’ benefits by $ 40 billion . Outlays on all remaining programs fell $ 100 billion . This is why reducing spending is so tough .

Imprecise Indicator Far from being a leading or coincident economic indicator , the unemployment rate is a lagging economic indicator . Here ’ s why . In a downturn , firms first stop posting

jobs and then stop hiring . If things worsen , employers will reduce headcount through attrition and then , if possible , furlough workers . Only then will layoffs commence . Thus , by the time the unemployment rate starts significantly rising , as has recently , conditions have already meaningfully deteriorated .

Hefty Helene While Hurricane Katrina ’ s inflationadjusted damage and economic losses exceeded $ 300 billion , and Ian , Sandy , and Harvey were all about $ 200 billion , initial estimates , which are likely to rise , put the impact of Hurricane Helene at $ 150 billion , making it the fourth costliest hurricane in US history . By comparison , Hurricane Beryl and Hurricane Debbie , which both touched down earlier this year , are expected to cost about $ 25 billion each .

Elliot Eisenberg , Ph . D . is an internationally acclaimed economist and public speaker specializing in making economics fun , relevant and educational . Dr . Eisenberg earned a B . A . in economics with first class honors from McGill University in Montreal , as well as a Master and Ph . D . in public administration from Syracuse University . Eisenberg is the Chief Economist for GraphsandLaughs , LLC , a Miamibased economic consultancy that serves a variety of clients across the United States . He writes a syndicated column and authors a daily 70-word commentary on the economy that is available at www . econ70 . com .

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