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Millions of Americans can ’ t afford to buy a home or rent a suitable apartment , making housing a central issue for voters in the upcoming presidential election .
The biggest single reason homeownership is out of reach for many is there aren ’ t nearly enough homes for sale to balance out the market between buyers and sellers .
The shortfall , which some economists say ranges from 1 million to around 4 million homes , has for the better part of the last decade fueled bidding wars that boosted the median sales price of a previously occupied U . S . home to an all-time high of $ 426,900 in June — even as home sales have been in a deep slump for more than two years .
Higher mortgage rates have also kept many home shoppers on the sidelines . The average rate on a 30-year mortgage rose to a 23-year high of nearly 8 % late last year , and now sits at 6.44 %.
Renters haven ’ t had it any easier . While the median U . S . asking rent has been easing for more than a year following a wave of new apartment construction , it remains roughly 20 % higher than it was before the pandemic .
Against this backdrop , Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have put out proposals that they contend will make the American Dream accessible to more Americans .
Harris ’ campaign has laid out a detailed roadmap of policies aimed at expanding access to affordable housing both for homebuyers and renters that includes offering firsttime homebuyers up to $ 25,000 in down payment assistance and tax incentives for builders and federal funds for cities to speed up construction . She claims her plan will add 3 million new housing units over the next four years .
Trump says he will create tax
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incentives for homebuyers , cut “ unnecessary ” regulations on home construction and make some federal land available for residential construction , though the campaign ’ s platform doesn ’ t include any details . Trump also claims that he will lower housing costs by reducing inflation and stopping illegal immigration .
Setting aside the fact that many of the candidates ’ policies would require support from a majority of lawmakers in Congress , which the next president may not have , economists say the campaigns ’ platforms offer some good ideas , but no sure fixes to the housing market ’ s longstanding challenges .
Here ’ s a look at some of the candidates ’ key ideas : Trump ’ s immigration crackdown Trump and his campaign have repeatedly tied the nation ’ s housing woes to immigration , suggesting mass deportations will ease the demand for homes , thus making housing more available and affordable .
The former president has long focused broadly on undocumented immigrants as a core political issue , but when it comes to housing policy , his campaign has also pointed fingers at immigrants who are legally in the country too . His running mate , the Ohio Senator JD Vance , has blamed Haitian immigrants living in his home state for causing a housing problem .
Chris Herbert , managing director of Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies , said in a statement that rising interest rates and the pandemic-era spike in housing demand are to blame for rising costs —– not immigrants .
“ While immigrants do add to overall housing demand , they cannot be blamed for the recent surge in home prices and rents that took off in 2020 and 2021 , as immigration reached its lowest
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levels in decades due to the pandemic ,” Herbert said .
Jim Tobin , CEO of the National Association of Home Builders , said mass deportations could make the supply problem worse because one-third of the homebuilding industry ’ s labor force is foreign born .
“ Anything that potentially disrupts the inflow of foreign-born labor into our industry would be disruptive . No doubt about it ,” Tobin said .
Sarah Saadian , senior vice president of public policy at the National Low Income Housing Coalition , said undocumented people tend to live in overcrowded units , so the eviction of only immigrants in a home wouldn ’ t create an actual vacancy , nor does it address the affordability dilemma .
“ The most pressing part is wages and incomes aren ’ t high enough to cover rental costs and that doesn ’ t really have anything to do with undocumented people ,” Saadian said .
Harris ’ $ 25,000 down-payment plan
Harris aims to directly aid home shoppers by providing up to $ 25,000 in down-payment assistance to first-time buyers who have paid their rent on time for two years .
The campaign , which claims the program would help more than 4 million first-time buyers and cost $ 100 billion , says that such downpayment assistance is not new , noting that as of 2019 nearly threequarters of single-family mortgages included down payment aid provided by state housing finance agencies .
Like Trump ’ s plan , Harris ’ proposal could backfire in a way . Economists warn that introducing a buyer incentive when the supply of homes for sale remains tight in many markets could juice prices , making homeownership less affordable . The impact could depend on the particular market . The impact could depend on the particular market .
“ In Los Angeles , $ 25,000 down payment assistance is not enough , but it is enough in Detroit ,” said Daryl Fairweather , chief economist at Redfin .
Still , if the number of homes on the market grows , the financial assistance makes more sense , because it can reassure homebuilders that “ there will be buyers willing to buy ” the homes they build , Fairweather said .
The federal government has offered tax incentives to homebuyers in the not too distant past . In 2008 , the Obama Administration enacted a first-time homebuyer tax credit of up to
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$, 7,500 as the housing market reeled from a housing crash and the Great Recession . It pulled forward sales as buyers seized on the incentive , but the housing market remained in a slump until 2012 .
The Trump campaign promises to make homeownership affordable for “ families , young people , and everyone ,” but doesn ’ t offer specifics . It mentions that the GOP will “ support first-time buyers ” and claims it will reduce mortgage rates by “ slashing ” inflation .
However , experts say Trump ’ s overall economic agenda in a second term would worsen inflation , which fell last month to its lowest point in more than three years .
Agreed : zoning and federal lands Among the few things the two candidates do agree on : easing up on zoning laws and using federal lands to build homes .
Trump has pledged to tackle zoning and other construction regulations in order to accelerate housing production , though his platform doesn ’ t go into details .
Harris is proposing a $ 40 billion fund to spur local governments , which control zoning laws , to streamline their regulations in order to cut down on the time it takes for builders to get projects cleared and completed . One caveat : state and local governments have to show that they ’ re building housing that is affordable .
Both candidates have also said , however vaguely , that they ’ re in favor of making “ limited portions ” of or “ certain ” federal land available for home construction .
Harris ’ plan points to the Biden administration ’ s initiative in Las Vegas , where the Bureau of Land Management sold off 20 acres at a steep discount for Clark County to build single-family homes that will eventually be sold to those with an annual household income of up to $ 70,000 .
Don Simpson , the vice president of the Public Lands Foundation , said the laws were set more than 20 years ago to give Nevada authorities the ability to buy federal land at below market rate for affordable housing . Simpson said there are other small parcels near places like Barstow , California , and Boise , Idaho where this could be replicated on a limited basis .
Nicholas Irwin , a University of Nevada Las Vegas professor , said the 210 homes will hardly make a dent in the estimated 75,000-unit shortage that Southern Nevada needs today .
“ We ’ re short by a lot . More federal land alone isn ’ t going to solve this ,” Irwin said .
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