Elliot Eisenberg Economic & Policy Blog

Hooray Housing October existing home sales came in at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 3.96 million , up 2.9 % Y-o-Y . This is the first year-over-year increase since 7 / 21 ! The rise is a result of very weak sales in 10 / 23 and lower mortgage rates in August / September when contracts were signed . Sales remain near their lowest level in decades . The best news , inventory is up 19.1 % Y-o-Y , and price appreciation was just 4 % Y-o-Y .

Declining Debt In 24Q3 , household debt rose by $ 147 billion and now stands at $ 17.94 trillion . However , income increased faster in 24Q3 and now stands at $ 21.80 trillion . Therefore , the debt-to-income ratio continued its decline and is now 82 %, meaningfully below the 86 % prepandemic level , and is back where it was in 2003 . The debt-to-income

ratio peaked at 120 % in 2008 . The continued decline suggests that , collectively , rising debt burdens are manageable .

NCAA Numbers Now that college athletes can earn money for their name , image , and likeness ( NIL ), wow are they starting to rake it in . In NCAA Division I men ’ s basketball , the average income of the starting five is now $ 3.3 million . For women ’ s basketball it ’ s $ 730,000 . In football , the average income of starting players in the Power Four conferences is $ 10.7 million . Absolutely astounding , and good for them .

Public Payroll There are 2.3 million civilians working for Uncle Sam . 70 % are in military / security related agencies . Veteran ’ s Affairs is the largest cabinet-level department / military branch with 486,522 employees , it ’ s the hospitals . Homeland Security follows at 222,539 , then Army with 221,0437 , Navy at 216,537 , Air Force at 168,505 , and Defense with 156,803 . Education is the smallest with 4,425 . Civilian payroll is $ 213 billion / year , while the FY24 deficit

was $ 1.83 trillion , 9x payroll . Duty Dollars In 2018 / 2019 , President Trump imposed tariffs of $ 380 billion on thousands of imported products . The results : reduce GDP by 0.2 %, the capital stock by 0.1 %, employment by 142,000 full-time equivalent jobs , raise core-goods inflation by about 4 % in the first year , zero thereafter , and increase direct tax collections by $ 250 / household / year . Non-trivial but not large . The newly proposed tariffs , if fully implemented , are likely to have quadruple the impact .

Retail Revision While October retail sales came in slightly hot at 0.4 % M-o-M , Vs . 0.3 % expected , it was the huge upward revision to September retail sales from 0.4 % M-o-M to 0.8 % M-o-M that stole the show . This will necessarily lead to an upward revision of 24Q3 growth that now sits at 2.8 %. The U . S . consumer is alive and kicking , and this strength is reducing the likelihood of a December Fed rate cut .

Album Absence Sales of “ greatest hits ” compilation albums , such as the Eagles Greatest Hits 1971-1975 , America ’ s all-time best-selling album , have plummeted

as streaming and resulting playlists have altered how we listen to music . Such sales had a recent peak in 2011 at 3.75 million but sank to 1.34 million by 2023 . Moreover , such albums now cater to die-hard fans and thus often come with premium price tags .

Tariff Tradeoffs While Trump speaks of wanting a weak dollar , imposing tariffs will strengthen it . It ’ s because imposing a tariff makes foreign goods more costly and that means fewer such goods will be imported and thus fewer dollars will be converted into foreign currency . Moreover , tariffs will reduce growth abroad , especially in export-focused nations , which lowers foreign interest rates which causes investors to seek higher rates and thus hold more dollars .

Elliot Eisenberg , Ph . D . is an internationally acclaimed economist and public speaker specializing in making economics fun , relevant and educational . Dr . Eisenberg earned a B . A . in economics with first class honors from McGill University in Montreal , as well as a Master and Ph . D . in public administration from Syracuse University . Eisenberg is the Chief Economist for GraphsandLaughs , LLC , a Miamibased economic consultancy that serves a variety of clients across the United States . He writes a syndicated column and authors a daily 70-word commentary on the economy that is available at www . econ70 . com .

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