News Breakbulk & Project Cargo
‘ Waiting position’
Geopolitics dampening otherwise buoyant project cargo outlook
By Carly Fields to Ragan Watson, a project sales executive at asset-based heavy-lift and project logistics provider Barnhart. Watson pointed to the ever-shifting US tariff and trade policy landscape, as well as a raft of canceled renewable energy projects, but contrasted those headwinds with soaring investment in AI data centers and related infrastructure contributing to the“ busiest” North American market he’ s seen in almost 20 years in the industry.
“ These facilities are some of the largest industrial projects to be built in the world ever, and now they’ re all being built at the same time,” Watson said. Even with growing grassroots opposition to data centers, the resulting demand for power generation, transformers and grid infrastructure is creating significant project cargo opportunities.
‘ Plan B’ is the new norm
Cosmatos Group
Tight economics and geopolitics are delaying investment decisions on global industrial projects, but underlying demand in the project cargo sector remains strong, cargo-handling experts say.
Industry specialists taking part in a roundtable hosted by the Journal of Commerce said long-term market prospects, particularly in energy, infrastructure, defense, and technology projects, will keep shippers and forwarders busy.
Mathias Audrain, commercial manager at shipowner and manager Maritime Nantaise, described conditions as positive. He pointed to continued growth in the space and defense sectors, while also highlighting the possibility of a surge in demand when the war in Iran eventually ends and reconstruction programs begin.“ The war will stop one day, and the countries will be rebuilt,” Audrain said, adding that numerous industrial developments that have been postponed will create substantial demand when they resume.
Niels Walch, director of project logistics for Southeast Asia and the Pacific at forwarder Rhenus Logistics, characterized the current market as“ fairly neutral,” but said structural growth drivers remain firmly in place.
“ Investments are being held back; the insecurity is pretty high,” he said. However, Walch expects capital expenditures across Asia-Pacific to increase significantly over the next decade, particularly in the infrastructure, power transmission and renewable energy sectors.
“ The market will develop very positively, but I think it’ s a bit of a waiting position right now,” he said.
The North American market is likewise experiencing both disruption and unprecedented opportunity, according
A recurring theme during the roundtable was supply chain resilience and the increasing importance of contingency planning. Walch argued that project logistics providers must now develop multiple transport scenarios for every shipment.
“ You need to have multiple concepts in your locker,” he said.“ You need to have a‘ plan B’ to offer to your customer.”
Watson agreed, noting that due to vessel availability issues, route changes and equipment shortages, the most appropriate solution in many cases is no longer the lowestcost option.
“ Risk mitigation is almost, for many of our clients, even more important than cost,” Watson said.“ A cheap price is okay, but a cheap price might result in higher risk.”
That is particularly true when handling high-value project cargoes.“ To choose the cheapest solution here is definitely a mistake,” he said, given that delays or damage involving cargoes worth hundreds of millions of dollars can have major consequences for industrial production and project schedules.
Participants also raised concerns over future multipurpose vessel availability. Audrain warned of a potential capacity shortage if major Middle East reconstruction and deferred industrial investments proceed simultaneously.
Breakbulk and project cargo carriers have“ no solution” in such a scenario, he said. New vessel construction requires years of planning, and shipyards are already heavily committed to fleet renewal programs.
Watson said Barnhart has been encouraging customers to secure capacity much earlier in the project cycle and to engage logistics providers during planning, rather than after procurement decisions have been finalized.
More broadly, geopolitical uncertainty, supply chain constraints, and changing trade flows are now treated as a normal part of business rather than exceptional events.
Christophe Le Tanter, port operations manager at heavy storage and stevedoring specialist Sogebras, said the project cargo sector has become accustomed to navigating successive crises since the COVID-19 pandemic.
“ We always have a problem, but it’ s still working,” he said.“ We are more in the mood to accept the fact that nothing is stable.”
email: carly. fields @ spglobal. com
20 Journal of Commerce | September 2026 www. joc. com