Cover Story Breakbulk & Project Cargo
US wind energy capacity is expected to reach 970 MW in 2024 , 1,220 MW in 2025 and 15,030 MW by 2030 . Gulf Wind Technology
A widening chasm
US offshore wind development falling short of lofty expectations
By Autumn Cafiero Giusti
Despite recent movement on Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind , Atlantic Shores South and several other large offshore wind farms , the gap between forecasts for offshore wind installations in the US and reality has become a chasm . However , this rift is expected to begin converging in 2026 .
According to a September forecast from S & P Global , parent company of the Journal of Commerce , total installed US wind energy capacity will grow to 970 MW in 2024 and 1,220 MW in 2025 , a significant downgrade from a September 2023 projection of 3,032 MW and 6162.5 MW , respectively . By 2030 , S & P Global expects US wind capacity to reach 15,030 MW .
Equipment installations — a key source of breakbulk and project cargo — are under way on multiple large-scale projects , while other offshore wind developments have faced cancellations and delays , US offshore wind specialists told the Journal of Commerce .
Offshore wind buildout in the US has been hindered by other geographical markets juggling the restricted expertise needed for offshore projects , while trying to build simultaneously in the US , said James Clouse , director of special projects at Seattle-based Sea . O . G , which provides heavylift transport for US offshore industries , including wind .
The still-nascent US offshore wind sector has been “ leaning on ” European manufacturers to build turbine components and transfer their industry knowledge in time for a successful offshore wind operation to get under way in the US , Clouse said .
That reliance “ really slowed things down in terms of the developers being able to supply the contracts needed to kick off the supply chain to full force here in the US ,” he said .
A ‘ two-speed ’ sector
A July report from offshore energy data analysis firm Esgian described global offshore wind as a market that “ continues to move at two speeds ,” with global lease awards climbing 1,086 % from the first quarter to 34.4 GW in the second quarter , and Australia accounting for 72 % of the total awarded capacity .
But the pace of the overall contract awards remains slow , with only five new equipment contracts awarded in the second quarter , eight fewer than in the first quarter , according to the report .
“ We continue to look to a steadily growing momentum for both equipment and vessel contracts as the year progresses , but the large gap between contract awards and lease area awards is stark ,” the report read .
In the US , that gap adds to the uncertainty in the supply chain , Clouse said .
“ If the local supply chain is not able to take in meaningful contracts , it ’ s very difficult to establish a business that ’ s focused on offshore wind because there ’ s no availability to play in that market ,” Clouse said .
Although Clouse said he is bullish on offshore wind as a “ generational opportunity ,” there have been obstacles along the way . Last year , he and his business partner exited a crew transfer vessel company they formed after it became difficult to obtain backing from conventional banks and other financiers .
“ If vendors come in and know that the system works , that the project works , that the developer is able to execute a meaningful contract , then it ’ s much easier for groups like ours to go get financing ,” he said .
Lessons learned
US offshore wind leasing activity is expected to pick up significantly in the second half of the year , with 6.3 GW of leases scheduled to be awarded in the Central Atlantic , according to the Esgian report .
But high expectations for the industry are set against the backdrop of significant project cancellations and other problems with projects in development .
The global offshore wind market “ continues to move at two speeds .”
James Clouse Director of Special Projects , Sea . O . G
In late 2023 , Danish developer Ørsted scrapped plans for its 2,400-MW Ocean Wind 1 and 2 projects in New Jersey , citing high interest rates , rising inflation , and supply chain snarls .
Meanwhile , equipment problems have plagued projects such as the Vineyard Wind farm off the coast of Massachusetts , where a 351-foot-long turbine blade , manufactured by US-based GE Vernova , broke off and shattered into the Atlantic Ocean in July .
“ It ’ s these types of quality issues that [ East Coast offshore projects are ] navigating their way through , more so than a supply chain availability issue ,” Alex Strogen , chief commercial officer for the Port of Vancouver , Wash ., told the Journal of Commerce .
The 36 offshore wind projects off the East Coast www . joc . com November 2024 | Journal of Commerce 7