Commentary Breakbulk & Project Cargo whether tariffs were off or on, and at what level they might be, was one of the main concerns for shippers talking to the Journal of Commerce in October.
Fluctuations in anticipated final project costs— even while cargoes are being shipped— continue to lead to the rerouting of cargoes as shippers try to react to an ever-changing situation. Shippers say they have had to discharge cargo earlier than anticipated and pay overland costs or diversify their sourcing across Asia and Europe.
Upstream oil and gas spending to average 4.1 % per year
Global upstream oil and gas investment by expenditure type, in billions of USD
USD billion
985 1,715 1,600
800 1,400
600 1,200
100 1,000 10
400
1,000
800 200
USD billion
The threat of tariffs loomed large, but the main effect was logistical rather than economic.
0 L 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Notes: Data as of October 2025 Shaded areas indicate forecasts
Source: S & P Global
E & P Spending LNG / pipelines Total capex and opex spend( right-hand axis)
600
© 2025 S & P Global
But more certainty around some tariffs in the final quarter of the year could ease planning concerns, shippers say. The US has announced deals with China, the EU, Japan, South Korea and several Association of Southeast Asian Nations( ASEAN) states, among others, typically including reduced tariff rates, exemptions or reduced rates for product-level duties, purchase and investment commitments and reductions in duties on imports from the US.
Sector-level tariffs have been deployed for steel, aluminum, copper and autos, among others, at rates of 25 % to 100 %, with investigations ongoing into electronics, machine tools, critical minerals and more. At the start of November, deals had yet to be concluded with Canada and Mexico.
In a late-October report, S & P Global said US tariffs are likely to remain in place for most trade partners outside of a major market or economic event. The US Supreme Court, which held a hearing the first week of November on Trump’ s authority to implement widespread tariffs, may have its say as well before too long. Until then, the relative stability has improved investor confidence, leading to more projects receiving final approval, according to engineering, procurement and construction companies speaking to the Journal of Commerce.
email: susan. oatway @ spglobal. com
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