ARTICLE
Future of Nuclear
South Asia
S
outh Asia is the most volatile and unpredictable security complex. There are several states in it and all of
them have a different pattern of relation among themselves. India is enjoying dominance and all other states, except Pakistan are designing their policies somewhat according to wishes of India. Pakistan is a challenger to India and
both countries have fought several wars.With the addition of
nuclear dimension in South Asia the matters have become
more complex. No doubt nuclearization has stopped war
between India and Pakistan, but it has changed the pattern
of war as well. Now there is Fourth Generation war and Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Davol has openly admitted
it in one of his public speech. In this situation several questions arises: Is there any possibility of turning these subconventional attacks into a war which has been prevented
since 1971 because of nuclear weapons? If a war breaks
out, will it be limited just like Kargil Conflict or it will turn into
a full-scale war? What is the possibility of nuclear exchange
between India and Pakistan in case of a war?South Asia is
badly affected by the curse of terrorism. Along with terrorism,
religious extremism is increasing further. Both Pakistan and
India are badly suffering from it. There are several anti-India
groups in Pakistan and anti-Pakistan groups in India. They
are operating in their own procedure; some incidents have
increased the temperature of the region. Its prominent example is Mumbai attack in which India accused a Pakistani
religious group Lahker-E-Taiba as a responsible for that and
threatened Pakistan to attack it. International community
intervened and kept India away from attacking Pakistan.If
some such attack takes place in future, there is a strong
possibility of a war which will be out of control and will have
disastrous consequences. What is probability of nuclear exchange? Pakistan believes in minimum credible deterrence
but according to Bruce Ridel during Kargil crisis there were
“disturbing evidence that the Pakistanis were preparing their
nuclear arsenals for possible deployment”. India explains in
its doctrine that it does not believe in a “first strike” doctrine
but