BIKERS CLUB OCTOBER 2019 ISSUE | Page 33

CURRENT AFFAIRS ABROGATION OF ARTICLE 370 AND THE SOUTH ASIAN POWER PLAY Abrogation of Article 370 of the Indian constitution has had various implications, it also has altered the south Asian geopolitical dynamics. The varied nature and interest of stake holders in this region is what makes it interesting. Considering that the key interest of India is regional integration of South Asia lets look into all the major stake holders and the possible repercussions with respect to the abrogation of Article 370. THE ROAD AHEAD FOR NON-STATE ACTORS: Al-Qaeda earlier this year hinted on forming a new shura council for Kashmir without Pakistani intelligence involved in it, as it wants to reduce the Pakistani influence in Kashmir. Terror houses are seeing this as an opportunity to expand their Jihadist project in Kashmir. Other transnational terror groups like 'Islamic State' will also try to seek benefits from the Kashmir Valley crisis. would their ambitious project of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The second option China has is to do nothing and also get India to join 'Belt and Road Initiative'. This option seems to be most likely for China even though they in past have claimed the Buddhist provinces of Ladakh to be theirs. THE AFGHAN CRISIS: Insurgencies in Kashmir more or less coincides with the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1988. So, a power vacuum in Afghanistan would not be favourable for India. India also has over 2 billion civilian investments in Afghanistan and is utmost importance to India as Afghanistan's garland highway is an integral part of India's 'North-South trade corridor'. With USA calling off its talks with Taliban and Afghan government being India's close allies, things look good for India but this only seems temporary. PAKISTAN: USA AT CROSS-ROADS: It seemed like USA wanted to exit Afghanistan for the good but the USA-Taliban talks fell apart even though Pakistan was mediating the talks. One of the reasons for this is that if USA exits right now then China could easily cash it on the power vacuum, which is not desirable for USA. THE CHINESE ANGLE: China clearly has two options right now, the first being to help Pakistan in its efforts to rally multilateral institutions against India. But it is highly unlikely that China would do this as they too have failed to recognise a UN verdict pertaining south china sea dispute, moreover if Kashmir goes into a limbo with the interference of some international agency then so In 1947 when India took the Kashmir issue to United Nations, it suggested for a referendum to be held, is Pakistan as the rules of the referendum clearly suggest that Pakistan should de-militarize the entire POK which never happened. So on a global platform their voice won't be hear loud. Also Pakistan has found itself amidst a major economic turmoil and is clearly under the mercy of China. Considering the fact that China would dictate terms for Pakistan, we can infer that there won't be a major retaliation from Pakistan, as all that China needs is stability in the region for CPEC. by Advait Nambiar WWW.BIKERSCLUB.IN