CURRENT AFFAIRS
ABROGATION OF ARTICLE 370
AND THE SOUTH ASIAN POWER PLAY
Abrogation of Article 370 of the Indian
constitution has had various implications, it
also has altered the south Asian geopolitical
dynamics.
The varied nature and interest of stake holders in this
region is what makes it interesting. Considering that
the key interest of India is regional integration of
South Asia lets look into all the major stake holders
and the possible repercussions with respect to the
abrogation of Article 370.
THE ROAD AHEAD FOR NON-STATE ACTORS:
Al-Qaeda earlier this year hinted on forming a new
shura council for Kashmir without Pakistani
intelligence involved in it, as it wants to reduce the
Pakistani influence in Kashmir. Terror houses are
seeing this as an opportunity to expand their Jihadist
project in Kashmir. Other transnational terror groups
like 'Islamic State' will also try to seek benefits from
the Kashmir Valley crisis.
would their ambitious project of China Pakistan
Economic Corridor (CPEC). The second option China
has is to do nothing and also get India to join 'Belt
and Road Initiative'. This option seems to be most
likely for China even though they in past have
claimed the Buddhist provinces of Ladakh to be
theirs.
THE AFGHAN CRISIS:
Insurgencies in Kashmir more or less coincides with
the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1988. So, a
power vacuum in Afghanistan would not be
favourable for India. India also has over 2 billion
civilian investments in Afghanistan and is utmost
importance to India as Afghanistan's garland highway
is an integral part of India's 'North-South trade
corridor'. With USA calling off its talks with Taliban
and Afghan government being India's close allies,
things look good for India but this only seems
temporary.
PAKISTAN:
USA AT CROSS-ROADS:
It seemed like USA wanted to exit Afghanistan for the
good but the USA-Taliban talks fell apart even though
Pakistan was mediating the talks. One of the reasons
for this is that if USA exits right now then China could
easily cash it on the power vacuum, which is not
desirable for USA.
THE CHINESE ANGLE:
China clearly has two options right now, the first
being to help Pakistan in its efforts to rally multilateral
institutions against India. But it is highly unlikely that
China would do this as they too have failed to
recognise a UN verdict pertaining south china sea
dispute, moreover if Kashmir goes into a limbo with
the interference of some international agency then so
In 1947 when India took the Kashmir issue to United
Nations, it suggested for a referendum to be held, is
Pakistan as the rules of the referendum clearly
suggest that Pakistan should de-militarize the entire
POK which never happened. So on a global platform
their voice won't be hear loud. Also Pakistan has
found itself amidst a major economic turmoil and is
clearly under the mercy of China. Considering the
fact that China would dictate terms for Pakistan, we
can infer that there won't be a major retaliation from
Pakistan, as all that China needs is stability in the
region for CPEC.
by Advait Nambiar
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