BIKERS CLUB JANUARY 2020 ISSUE | Page 38

CURRENT AFFAIRS USA - IRAN TENSION AND EFFECTS ON INDIA USA - IRAN - INDIA EFFECTS ON INDIA: Approximately about 66% of the crude oil imported by India in the last financial year was from the Middle East. A major war in the Middle East region, which is an area that is in any case not only conflict-prone but also home to the maximum failed states of the world, will substantially increase consumer prices in India. Continued tensions between the USA and Iran are of crucial importance to India's economy. Because oil prices would massively increase. This means that less money would be allocated to integral areas such as affordable housing, healthcare, and infrastructure and development. Since the death of General Soleimani, oil prices have already surged four percent in India. This increasing rise in crude oil will also undesirably affect India's energy supply. It will increase India's exports and deplete our foreign exchange reserves. The value of the rupee too might go down. Furthermore, at a time where India's economy is facing slow growth, this could have severe consequences for national development and infrastructure. The USA - IRAN ties: The USA and Iran share a rocky relationship, which dates back to the Islamic Revolution of 1979, which overthrew the Shah, an American ally ruler, and brought Iran under a regime that was at loggerheads with the USA. America placed sanctions on Iran in the 1980s and 1990s in order to put a check on Iran's regional activities. Heavy economic sanctions were placed for more than a year before Obama decided to sign the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and again before President Trump pulled out of the JCPOA in 2018. The pact was signed under the Obama administration in 2015. The JCPOA aimed to halt Iran's nuclear agenda. For Trump, the JCPOA was not enough. Trump said that the pact provisions would still let Iran attain nuclear weapons. Additionally, the American President has made multiple statements expressing that Iran's nuclear issues, missile programs, and military expansion undermines the US national interests, after all, there is nothing one could retaliate to when the word 'national interest' is used since its ambit is hugely subjective and personal. INDIA - IRAN ties: Bilateral relations are strong via economic, cultural, and historical links, India and Iran look to each other as key actors in maintaining stability in the region. In 2016, PM Modi and Iran President Rouhani strengthened relations even; energy is the most important between India and Iran, Moreover, the development and operationalization of the Chabahar Port as an essential transport and trade corridor with Afghanistan and Central Asia. Rising US - Iran tensions massively hinders India's foreign policy agenda. Development of the Chabahar Port, too, would be halted. On the one hand, India and Iran carry good relations and cooperate on trade, and now that similar relationship is shared with Iraq. However, with Iraq being the war ground, even that relationship would seemingly come to a stalemate. India, Iran, and Afghanistan had also recently signed a trilateral agreement to increase trade, collaboration, and transit. On the other hand, India carries powerful relations with the USA as well. We even have a preferred military partnership with the USA and joint military exercises like "Yudh Abhiyas" and "Malabar." In this context, India currently has stakes to lose and none to gain. However, the saving grace for India was Trump's reply to the Iranian bombing at the US military base in Iraq, wherein he chose to move ahead with economic sanctions and not further military actions because a stable middle east is detrimental for the development of India. Nevertheless, one never knows if all this animosity would eventually lead to a spark that would further lead to a fire! article by Advait Nambiar B I K E R S C L U B ® | www.bikersclub.in