CURRENT AFFAIRS
USA - IRAN TENSION AND EFFECTS ON INDIA
USA - IRAN - INDIA EFFECTS ON INDIA:
Approximately about 66% of the crude oil
imported by India in the last financial year was
from the Middle East. A major war in the Middle
East region, which is an area that is in any case
not only conflict-prone but also home to the
maximum failed states of the world, will
substantially increase consumer prices in India. Continued tensions between the USA and Iran are of
crucial importance to India's economy. Because oil
prices would massively increase. This means that
less money would be allocated to integral areas such
as affordable housing, healthcare, and infrastructure
and development. Since the death of General
Soleimani, oil prices have already surged four
percent in India. This increasing rise in crude oil will
also undesirably affect India's energy supply. It will
increase India's exports and deplete our foreign
exchange reserves. The value of the rupee too might
go down. Furthermore, at a time where India's
economy is facing slow growth, this could have
severe consequences for national development and
infrastructure.
The USA - IRAN ties:
The USA and Iran share a rocky relationship, which
dates back to the Islamic Revolution of 1979, which
overthrew the Shah, an American ally ruler, and
brought Iran under a regime that was at loggerheads
with the USA. America placed sanctions on Iran in
the 1980s and 1990s in order to put a check on Iran's
regional activities. Heavy economic sanctions were
placed for more than a year before Obama decided
to sign the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action
(JCPOA) and again before President Trump pulled
out of the JCPOA in 2018. The pact was signed
under the Obama administration in 2015. The JCPOA
aimed to halt Iran's nuclear agenda. For Trump, the
JCPOA was not enough. Trump said that the pact
provisions would still let Iran attain nuclear weapons.
Additionally, the American President has made
multiple statements expressing that Iran's nuclear
issues, missile programs, and military expansion
undermines the US national interests, after all, there
is nothing one could retaliate to when the word
'national interest' is used since its ambit is hugely
subjective and personal.
INDIA - IRAN ties:
Bilateral relations are strong via economic, cultural,
and historical links, India and Iran look to each other
as key actors in maintaining stability in the region. In
2016, PM Modi and Iran President Rouhani
strengthened relations even; energy is the most
important between India and Iran, Moreover, the
development and operationalization of the Chabahar
Port as an essential transport and trade corridor with
Afghanistan and Central Asia.
Rising US - Iran tensions massively hinders India's
foreign policy agenda. Development of the Chabahar
Port, too, would be halted.
On the one hand, India and Iran carry good relations
and cooperate on trade, and now that similar
relationship is shared with Iraq. However, with Iraq
being the war ground, even that relationship would
seemingly come to a stalemate. India, Iran, and
Afghanistan had also recently signed a trilateral
agreement to increase trade, collaboration, and
transit. On the other hand, India carries powerful
relations with the USA as well. We even have a
preferred military partnership with the USA and joint
military exercises like "Yudh Abhiyas" and "Malabar."
In this context, India currently has stakes to lose and
none to gain. However, the saving grace for India
was Trump's reply to the Iranian bombing at the US
military base in Iraq, wherein he chose to move
ahead with economic sanctions and not further
military actions because a stable middle east is
detrimental for the development of India.
Nevertheless, one never knows if all this animosity
would eventually lead to a spark that would further
lead to a fire!
article by Advait Nambiar
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