Andrew B. Watkins( andrew. watkins1 @ monash. edu), Scott Power and Peter May, Monash University Anthony Rea, RMIT University Matthew England, UNSW Sue Barrell, University of Technology of Sydney Tas Van Ommen, University of Tasmania Peter Steinle, Melbourne University Tony Worby, University of Western Australia

This year, Australia has experienced record-breaking floods, tropical cyclones, heatwaves on land and in the ocean, drought, coral bleaching, coastal erosion and devastating algal blooms. Over the past five years, insured losses from extreme events have risen to A $ 4.5 billion annually— more than double the 30- year average.

But even as damage from climate change intensifies, political change overseas is threatening Australia’ s ability to track what’ s happening now, and predict what will happen next.

The United States has historically been a world leader in earth observation systems and freely sharing the gathered data. Sharing of data, expertise and resources between scientists in the US and Australia makes possible the high-quality weather, climate and ocean monitoring and forecasting we rely on.

But this is no longer guaranteed. Under the Trump administration, key US scientific institutions and monitoring programs are facing deep cuts. These cuts aren’ t just cosmetic— they will end essential data gathering. Australia has long relied on these data sources. When they dry up, it will make it much harder for scientists to look ahead.

Australian leaders should look for ways to boost local earth monitoring capabilities where possible and partner with other large scientific organisations outside the US.

What is at risk?

Forecasting weather and climate isn’ t simple. To produce accurate forecasts, scientists rely on earth observation systems which monitor changes to Earth’ s land, atmosphere, ocean and ice. Much of this vital data is gathered by satellites, augmented by ocean data from thousands of robotic ARGO floats which capture data on ocean temperatures and salinity. Using this data to model the complexity of the Earth system requires research expertise and supercomputers.

Australian weather and climate forecasting relies on many forms of data collection. Some US capabilities will soon be cut or restricted. World Meteorological Organization, CC BY-NC-ND

Extreme weather has hit Australia hard and often in 2025. Pictured: a storm surge at Robe, South Australia, on June 24 2025. Marcus Pohl, CC BY-NC.

This year, the US government has announced sweeping cuts which could significantly degrade earth monitoring data gathering and availability.

In March 2025, the administration culled around 1,000 positions at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration( NOAA).

Two months later, cuts were announced for NASA, including their Earth observation missions and to the National Science Foundation, with a proposed major reduction to Antarctic observations and research.

In June, still deeper cuts were proposed for NOAA. These would see the agency’ s Ocean and Atmospheric Research section dismantled and parts moved to the National Weather Service