Article
BAMOS Dec 2024
13
governments and community groups more power to implement adaptation options , more funding and better buy-in .
While trigger events can drive change and adaptation , this often requires complex political and social changes — and that takes time . In addition , unprecedented weather events are often analysed for their causes and impacts much after they have occurred . Such studies certainly contribute to improving our current knowledge and forecasting systems , but it can take years to apply lessons from these events to future risk management .
Climate change is bringing a new challenge by pushing us to a point where we must respond long before we have climate information . The theoretical flow of projections of how climate will change , assess vulnerability and risk , implement adaptation and repeat is being eclipsed by disasters .
A quote from American politician Rahm Emanuel on display in the Living Labs Northern Rivers exhibition . Photo : Ailie Gallant
The narrowing window of adaptation opportunity
Adding to this challenge is the fact that global warming is in some cases driving more frequent and severe extreme events , meaning we can expect to see an increase in some ‘ compounding ’ events .
Compounding events refer to multiple events that occur at the same time or one after another . Estimating the likelihood and impact of such events is complicated . We currently do not have an accurate understanding of how risk can multiply or be exacerbated by existing social or economic factors . It feels like we are experiencing these extreme conditions much faster than we can adequately predict or prepare for them .
What we do know is that compounding extreme events substantially increases the overall impact of events and the time spent in disaster recovery . When events occur in close proximity to one another , communities cannot completely recover before the next weather event hits , increasing the impact of conditions that would previously be borne well .
Compounding events also make it increasingly difficult for regions to reduce their climate risks by creating sustained change before they ’ re thrown back into disaster response . The Black Summer bushfires that swept through the Northern Rivers region in December 2019 generated a media storm regarding the attribution of climate change and calls from respected community members to take climate risk seriously . Just over two years later the floods washed away discussion of bushfires , with the focus firmly fixed on flood risk . Two years post-flood , with empty unlivable homes still in Lismore and surrounding towns , it feels like the clock is ticking to the next major weather event .
This highlights that our reliance on disaster events to drive forward preparedness and sustained change may quickly become unviable if the window for recovery and change becomes too short . Climate change adaptation needs to be happening now — and faster .
Adapting under pressure
Increasing ‘ unprecedented ’ natural disasters are starting to push adaptation to be an uncomfortable process where difficult conversations are put onto an urgent timeline . The imperative has become ‘ transform or be transformed ’.
It ’ s time to bring climate change adaptation firmly up onto our agenda and work out how we work with disaster preparedness and response to leap-frog ‘ disaster recovery ’ to ‘ better adapt ’. Progress in the Northern Rivers region is shining a light on ways this might go forward but also raises the alarm that adaptation needs to be happening now and faster .
The NSW Reconstruction Authority is attempting to move forward by bringing together traditional disaster preparation and community-driven climate change adaptation in their regional Disaster Adaptation Plans . Whether this is a new approach to adaptation planning or just one that resonates better with our Australian narrative of surviving and rebuilding , it offers an interesting glimpse into ways where our “ unprecedented ” events might be taking us .
There is no doubt that extreme events are occurring more frequently and are likely to become more damaging across Australia . This calls for building a more resilient system that can adapt to changes in the climate . There is a need for crossdiscipline collaboration and synergised efforts from across a range of organisations to strengthen vulnerable communities . We need much better infrastructure , early warning systems , emergency preparedness , adaptation policies and overall community resilience than we did before .
The Climate College is a network of early career professionals working in climate science and climate adaptation for the National Environmental Science Program ( NESP ). We recently took a trip to the Northern Rivers region to build on-ground experience and insights for our work researching climate change and adaptation .