BAMOS Vol 32 No.2 June 2019 | Page 13

BAMOS Jun 2019 Figure 7: Wind speed and direction at Fawkner Beacon for (a) Lull in wind speed (example from 17 July 2017), (b) abrupt onset of northerly winds (example from 23 July 2003) and (c) Squall or spike in wind speed (example from 25 September 2002). Again there is a preference for the warmer months with fourty of the fifty cases for these quadrants occurring between October and April. The winter/spring cases tended to result from fluctuations in strong westerly flow, rather than the double wind change category. North Quadrant About 40 per cent of the “in-line” abrupt wind speed increases occurred for winds in the North quadrant. They fall into three subjective categories: (a) after a lull in an extended period of significant winds (12 of the 35 events), (b) an abrupt onset of strong northerly winds from a period of light winds (15 of 35 events), and (c) squalls or spikes in wind speed typically lasting less than 20 minutes (8 cases). An example of (b) occurred on 7 February 2009 (Figure 1), and it was this type of event that is described in the case study (page 15). Another example for each category is shown in Figure 7. The “lull” cases occurred in synoptic situations with a series of fronts or a major low with embedded fronts crossing Victoria. The “abrupt onset” cases occurred in northerly flow ahead of a front approaching from the west, but still located over South Australia. In the “abrupt onset” cases the 925 hPa wind (about 700 metre altitude) was typically northerly at 30–40 knots several hours before the onset of the strong winds at the surface. These events are likely due to the mixing down of the low-level jet once the surface inversion has been eroded, as is hypothesised for the case of 11 June 2018 (case study, page 15). All except one of the 15 “abrupt onset” cases occurred before 1300 Local Time. The onset of strong winds at Fawkner Beacon is generally more abrupt than the simultaneous time series of winds at other stations in the north of Port Phillip. For example, of the 15 “abrupt onset” cases at Fawkner Beacon only two would have met the same onset criteria (an increase of 16 knots in half an hour) at Point Wilson. Several of the very marked cases occurred in the cooler months when the water over the bay is quite cold and does not respond to the diurnal warming that would take place over land. In some cases there are even hints of an incipient sea breeze. 13