22
BAMOS
Jun 2018
Position Statement continued...
7.
Suggested Reading on the History of the
Development of Weather Analysis and Prediction
Cox, John D. 2002. Storm Watchers—the turbulent history of
weather prediction from Franklin’s kite to El Niňo. (John Wiley
&Sons, New Jersey).
Moore, Peter. 2015. The Weather Experiment—the pioneers
who sought to see the future. (Chatto and Windus, London).
Fleming, James Rodger. 2016. Inventing Atmospheric Science—
Bjerknes, Rossby, Wexler and the Foundations of Modern
Meteorology. (MIT Press, Boston).
Fishman, J. and Kalish, R. 1994. The Weather Revolution
—innovations and imminent Breakthroughs in accurate
forecasting. (Plenum Press, New York and London).
References
Bauer, P., A. Thorpe and G. Brunet. 2015. The quiet revolution of
numerical weather prediction. Nature, 525, 47-55.
Magnussson, L. and E. Källén, 2013. Factors influencing skill
improvements in the ECMWF forecasting system. Mon. Wea.
Rev., 141, 3142-3153.
Simmons, A.J. and A. Hollingsworth, 2002. Some aspects of the
improvement in skill of numerical weather prediction. Quart. J.
Roy. Meteor. Soc., 128, 647-677.
Stern, H. and N.E. Davidson, 2015. Trends in the skill of weather
prediction at lead times of 1–14 days. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,
141, 2726-2736.
Edwards, Paul N. 2010. A Vast Machine—computer models,
climate data, and the politics of global warming. (MIT).
Figure 4. A long term time series showing the annual average proportion of maximum temperature forecasts for Melbourne within
3 degrees of the observed temperature for forecast ranges from 1 to 7 days (solid lines). The dashed lines show the corresponding
statistics for a persistence forecast (i.e. using the current day’s maximum temperature as the appropriate forecast).
Image: Bureau of Meteorology