BAMOS Dec 2017
29
Conclusions
By acknowledging the value of traditional forecasting methods , the four Pacific NMSs involved have achieved regular engagement with several regional communities where interactions had previously been minimal . Ongoing engagement and incorporation of TK into climate communication products has also helped with broader community discussions around climate variability and contemporary forecast terminology .
There is uncertain value in directing money towards ever more accurate numerical forecasts for developing regions if due attention is not also given to the role that TK forecasts can play in improving contemporary forecast communication and uptake . Without this consideration it is unlikely that contemporary forecasts , however accurate , will be fully utilized by large and often more vulnerable sections of the community . Traditional , Indigenous or local forecast knowledge has an important role to play in making forecasts more relevant to more end users , thus increasing broader community resilience to weather and climate extremes .
References
Bauer , P ., Thorpe , A . and Brunet , G ., 2015 ,. The quiet revolution of numerical weather prediction , Nature , 525 , 47 – 55 .
Chambers , L . E ., Plotz , R . D ., Dossis , T ., Hiriasia , D . H ., Malsale , P ., Martin , D . J ., Mitiepo , R ., Tahera , K . and Tofaeono , T . I ., 2017 . A database for traditional knowledge of weather and climate in the Pacific , Meteorological Applications , 24 , 491 – 502 .
Chambers , L . E . and Plotz , R . D ., 2017 . Traditional Knowledge Project : User Guides Compendium , Climate and Oceans Support Program in the Pacific , Bureau of Meteorology , Melbourne , 120 pp .
Gilles , J . L . and Valdivia , C ., 2009 . Local forecast communication in the Altiplano , Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society , 90 , 85 – 91 .
Malsale , P ., Sanau , N ., Tofaeono , T . I ., Kavisi , Z ., Willy , A ., Mitiepo , R ., Lui , S ., Chambers , L . E . and Plotz R . D . ( under review ). Protocols and partnerships for engaging Pacific Island communities in the collection and use of traditional climate knowledge . Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society .
Nakashima , D . J ., McLean , K . G ., Thulstrup , H . D ., Castillo , A . R . and Rubis , J . T ., 2012 . Weathering uncertainty : traditional knowledge for climate change assessment and adaptation , Paris and Darwin , UNESCO and UNU , 120 pp .
Pennesi , K ., 2007 . Improving forecast communication : Linguistic and cultural considerations . Bulletin American Meteorological Society , 88 , 1033 – 1044 .
Pennesi , K ., 2011 . Making forecasts meaningful : explanations of problematic predictions in Northeast Brazil , Weather , Climate , and Society , 3 , 90 – 105 .
Plotz , R . D ., Chambers , L . E . and Finn , C . K ., 2017 . The best of both worlds : a decision-making framework for combining traditional and contemporary forecast systems , Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology , 56 , 2377 – 2392 .
Figure 3 . Training workshop with Vanuatu ’ s rainfall collectors and Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazard Department to establish ongoing monitoring network of traditional climate indicators ( location : Luganville , Esipritu Santo ; photo by VMGD ).