BAMOS June 2017
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Average snow depth and cover in Australia have declined since the 1950s as temperatures have risen rapidly . Under high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios , climate models show severe reductions , with snow becoming rare by late in the century except on the highest peaks .
The Australian ski season could shorten by up to 80 days a year by 2050 under worst-case predictions , with the biggest impacts likely to be felt at lower-elevation sites such as Mt Baw Baw and Lake Mountain in Victoria .
As temperatures continue to rise , our alpine plants and animal communities are in real danger of being pushed off mountain tops , having nowhere to migrate to and no way of moving from or between alpine “ islands ”.
James Gleeson ’ s surreal apocalyptic painting Delenda est Carthago ( bottom , previous page ) is a provocative work that got us thinking about a future marred by unmitigated climate change . The title refers to Rome ’ s annihilation of Carthage in 149 BC . According to the ancient historian Polybius , the conquering Roman general , Scipio Aemilianus , famously wept as he likened the event to the mythical destruction of Troy and to the eventual end he could foresee for Rome .
As climate scientists , we are disturbingly aware of the threats to society not only here in Australia , but all over the world . Unmitigated human-induced climate change could potentially see the planet warm by more than 4 º C by the end of the century .
In Australia , inland regions of the country could warm by more than 5 º C on average by 2090 . In Melbourne , the number of days over 40 º C could quadruple by the end of the century , causing extreme heat stress to humans , wildlife , plants and infrastructure , especially in urban areas .
Warming of this rate and magnitude is a genuine threat to our civilisation . Gleeson ’ s artwork made us consider that the unimaginable may happen , as it has in the past .
On a more optimistic note , Imants Tillers ’ work New Litany ( below ) highlights the importance of communities taking a stand for environmental protection . Over our history Australians have fought against logging of native forests , nuclear power , whaling , and for the restoration of dammed river systems like the Snowy .
Public concern in Australia about climate change reached a peak in 2006 , largely in response to Al Gore ’ s film An Inconvenient Truth and Tim Flannery ’ s book The Weather Makers . Yet the decade since then has brought political turmoil , and national greenhouse emissions continue to rise .
The recent March for Science is a reminder that the stakes are now higher than ever before , and that many people really do care about the future .
The science is telling us that our climate is changing , often faster than we imagined . The range of CSIRO ’ s latest climate change projections reminds us that the future is still in our hands . We can avoid the worst aspects of climate change by reducing our greenhouse gas emissions , but we need to act now .
Art has always been a powerful portal to understanding how we feel about our world . Let ’ s hope it helps safeguard our climatic future .
This article originally appeared in The Conversation on 4 May .