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siamese
stories
ring in the new
By Roger Norwood
There has been a lot of media
chatter in recent weeks about the
possibility of a civil war breaking
out in Thailand, although many of
the long term expats I have spoken
to have dismissed the possibility,
normally based on what they have
seen happen here before.
Some however think that this time
it is different and more serious
than before, while there are some
commentators predicting that the
nation will divide into two separate
entities.
For those of us living in the Hua Hin
area though there does seem to be
a rather detached view of things,
because of a couple of things; firstly
the distance we are from the protests
and any likely battlegrounds, and
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secondly because of the status of
the area due to the royal connection
- I don’t think anyone imagines
that any Thais would want to show
any disrespect in the home of the
moarch.
There definitely seems to be an
impasse at present between the
protesters and their opposition - the
protests go on and the politicians
show restraint while the red shirt
supporters seethe at the injustice,
making comparisons to their long
protest and its outcome,
Personally I think i side with the
old hands as to the possibility of
large scale fighting - t I think that it
is likely to be quashed very quickly,
and in the way that is most common
here - a coup by the army. It won’t
solve the problem but it will bring
some kind of temporary order.
Ultimately the Thais will find a way
to appease everyone so that no
one loses face and everybody gets
something, and an uneasy truce
will break out. This seems to be
the way these things happen here,
and all the more likley because
according to one recent report, less
than a quarter of the population are
strongly in support of either side in
this dispute, leaving a large majority
who want it all to go away.
By this time next week we might well
know how this could pan out, with
the proposed Bangkok blockade
taking place on 13th January. If you
have to go to Bangkok, stay safe, and
I’ll see you next week!
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