AUDREY GRANT'S BETTER BRIDGE MAGAZINE September / October 2019 | Page 5

On the actual deal, the diamond finesse works and we make the contract with an overtrick. We get six diamond tricks to go with two spades, a heart, and a club. What if East held all five of the missing diamonds? Then it’s a truly stormy day and we’ll have to hope for a little luck in one of the other suits! T aking the L osses E arly On this next deal, we are in 3NT and West leads the ♠J. What’s our plan to guard against misfortune? ♠ ♥ ♦ ♣ LEAD ♠ J A 6 7 6 4 A K 6 4 3 9 6 3 3NT n w e s ♠ ♥ ♦ ♣ K Q 7 A K 5 2 10 7 5 A J 5 We start with eight top tricks: three spades, two hearts, two diamonds, and a club. We need only one more. This could come from hearts if the defenders’ six hearts are divided exactly 3-3, a 36% chance. There’s also the possibility East holds both the ♣K and ♣Q, a 25% chance. The best chance, however, is the diamond suit. Missing only five diamonds, we will establish two extra winners any time the defenders’ diamonds are divided 3-2, nearly a 70% chance. But what if the defenders’ diamonds are divided 4-1? We can still make the contract, but we will need to take some precautions. Suppose we win the first trick in our hand. We should start by playing a low diamond from both hands. Suppose both defenders follow suit and West wins and leads another spade. At this point, the diamond suit is established if the defenders’ diamonds were originally divided 3-2. If we’re the cautious type, however, we want to guard against a 4-1 break. So we should lead a low diamond from dummy, giving up a second trick in the suit. We’ll be rewarded when the full deal looks like this: win in our hand, take the ♣A-Q, cross to dummy with the ♠A, and play the ♣K. If the defenders’ clubs divide 3-3, we will get two more club tricks through length. We can then try the diamond finesse. If that works, we have all the tricks. Of course, we probably aren’t quite that optimistic. If we play a low spade from dummy and East holds A 6 ♠ 3 NT the ♠K, we will lose a trick, but the 7 6 4 ♥ ♠Q will now be a winner. Even if the ♦ A K 6 4 3 clubs don’t divide and the diamond ♣ 9 6 3 ♠ J 10 9 4 ♠ 8 5 3 2 finesse loses, we’ll still end up with n ten tricks: two spades, a heart, four ♥ J 9 8 3 ♥ Q 10 w e ♦ 8 ♦ Q J 9 2 diamonds, and three clubs. s ♣ Q 7 4 2 ♣ K 10 8 If we’re a pessimist, however, we should see the danger of playing a ♠ K Q 7 low spade a trick one. This might be ♥ A K 5 2 the actual layout: 10 7 5 ♦ ♣ A J 5 ♠ A 7 By taking our losses early and giving 3NT ♥ 10 6 up two diamond tricks, we still have ♦ Q J 8 6 a diamond left in our hand to cross ♣ K 9 8 6 3 to dummy’s ♦A and ♦K and take ♠ J 8 5 4 2 ♠ K 10 3 n the established fifth diamond. ♥ 9 4 3 2 F oreseeing P ossible D anger ♦ K 3 always ♣ J 4 As declarer, we should be looking for potential danger. Consider this deal in which we reach 3NT and West leads the ♠4. ♠ ♥ ♦ ♣ A 7 10 6 Q J 8 6 K 9 8 6 3 3NT w e s ♠ ♥ ♦ ♣ Q 9 6 A 7 5 A 10 9 5 4 A Q ♥ K Q J 8 ♦ 7 2 ♣ 10 7 5 2 If we play low from dummy at trick one, East wins the ♠K. East then switches to a heart, driving out our ♥A. When the clubs don’t break and n the diamond finesse loses, down we LEAD w e go. ♠ 4 s Instead, we should win the ♠A at Q 9 6 trick one and take the diamond ♠ finesse. Even though this loses, it ♥ A 7 5 loses to the safe opponent. West can’t ♦ A 10 9 5 4 lead another spade without giving us ♣ A Q If we are an optimist, we can see a trick with the ♠Q. If West leads the possibility of taking all thirteen anything else, we have nine tricks: tricks on this deal. If we play low one spade, one heart, four diamonds, from dummy at trick one and West and three clubs. has led away from the ♠K, we can In summary, when we are declaring, we should look for a favorable lie of the cards only if that’s necessary for hen the contract appears fairly the contract to succeed. Otherwise, we should consider what might go secure be prepared for what might wrong, and be prepared if the rains go wrong and plan your play do come. W , . B etter B ridge . com 3