difficult, not easier, by the presence of highly authoritarian,
extractive political institutions.
A DIFFERENT TYPE of endorsement of authoritarian growth
recognizes its unattractive nature but claims that
authoritarianism is just a passing stage. This idea goes
back to one of the classical theories of political sociology,
the theory of modernization, formulated by Seymour Martin
Lipset. Modernization theory maintains that all societies, as
they grow, are headed toward a more modern, developed,
and civilized existence, and in particular toward
democracy. Many followers of modernization theory also
claim that, like democracy, inclusive institutions will emerge
as a by-product of the growth process. Moreover, even
though democracy is not the same as inclusive political
institutions, regular elections and relatively unencumbered
political competition are likely to bring forth the
development of inclusive political institutions. Different
versions of modernization theory also claim that an
educated workforce will naturally lead to democracy and
better institutions. In a somewhat postmodern version of
modernization theory, New York Times columnist Thomas
Friedman went so far as to suggest that once a country got
enough McDonald’s restaurants, democracy and
institutions were bound to follow. All this paints an
optimistic picture. Over the past sixty years, most countries,
even many of those with extractive institutions, have
experienced some growth, and most have witnessed
notable increases in the educational attainment of their
workforces. So, as their incomes and educational levels
continue to rise, one way or another, all other good things,
such as democracy, human rights, civil liberties, and secure
property rights, should follow.
Modernization theory has a wide following both within
and outside academia. Recent U.S. attitudes toward
China, for example, have been shaped by this theory.
George H. W. Bush summarized U.S. policy toward
Chinese democracy as “Trade freely with China and time is
on our side.” The idea was that as China traded freely with
the West, it would grow, and that growth would bring
democracy and better institutions in China, as