growth it has seen in the last thirty years. But the
devastation and human suffering that the Great Leap
Forward and the Cultural Revolution caused generated
sufficient demand for change that Deng Xiaoping and his
allies were able to win the political fight.
B OTSWANA , C HINA , and the U.S. South, just like the Glorious
Revolution in England, the French Revolution, and the Meiji
Restoration in Japan, are vivid illustrations that history is
not destiny. Despite the vicious circle, extractive institutions
can be replaced by inclusive ones. But it is neither
automatic nor easy. A confluence of factors, in particular a
critical juncture coupled with a broad coalition of those
pushing for reform or other propitious existing institutions,
is often necessary for a nation to make strides toward more
inclusive institutions. In addition some luck is key, because
history always unfolds in a contingent way.