Of course, the iron law of oligarchy is not a true law, in the
sense that the laws of physics are. It does not chart an
inevitable path, as the Glorious Revolution in England or the
Meiji Restoration in Japan illustrate.
A key factor in these episodes, which saw a major turn
toward inclusive institutions, was the empowerment of a
broad coalition that could stand up against absolutism and
would replace the absolutist institutions by more inclusive,
pluralistic ones. A revolution by a broad coalition makes the
emergence of pluralistic political institutions much more
likely. In Sierra Leone and Ethiopia, the iron law of
oligarchy was made more likely not only because existing
institutions were highly extractive but also because neither
the independence movement in the former nor the Derg
coup in the latter were revolutions led by such broad
coalitions, but rather by individuals and groups seeking
power so that they could do the extracting.
There is yet another, even more destructive facet of the
vicious circle, anticipated by our discussion of the Maya
city-states in chapter 5. When extractive institutions create
huge inequalities in society and great wealth and
unchecked power for those in control, there will be many
wishing to fight to take control of the state and institutions.
Extractive institutions then not only pave the way for the next
regime, which will be even more extractive, but they also
engender continuous infighting and civil wars. These civil
wars then cause more human suffering and also destroy
even what little state centralization these societies have
achieved. This also often starts a process of descent into
lawlessness, state failure, and political chaos, crushing all
hopes of economic prosperity, as the next chapter will
illustrate.