Arlington Municipal Airport Development Plan Arlington Airport Development Plan | Page 72
The first two forecasts consider the relationship between historical registered aircraft in the county
and the active U.S. general aviation fleet as forecast by the FAA. As evidenced, the county’s market
share of U.S. active general aviation aircraft has been somewhat consistent leading up to 2014, fluctu‐
ating between a low of 1.02 percent and a high of 1.17 percent. In 2014, the Tarrant County registered
aircraft represented 1.01 percent of the estimated total general aviation fleet of 203,020 due to the
noticeable decrease in registered aircraft as previously discussed. This was the lowest percentage over
the past 15 years and is likely influenced by a slow economic recovery.
When applying a constant market share projection of 1.01 percent, 2,121 registered aircraft are pro‐
jected in Tarrant County by 2024. Since 2014 posted the lowest percentage of the last 15 years, it is
likely that this constant share projection represents the low‐end forecast. A second market share fore‐
cast considers the historical average market share of 1.09 percent since 2000. This forecast yields
2,288 registered aircraft in Tarrant County by 2024.
Two additional forecasts have been developed that consider the relationship between historical regis‐
tered aircraft and the population. By maintaining the same ratio of aircraft per 1,000 people, a 10‐year
forecast emerges. In 2014, the Tarrant County registered aircraft represented 1.07 aircraft per 1,000
people based upon the estimated population of the county. Projecting this ratio through 2024 yields
2,294 registered aircraft. The second forecast considers the historical average ratio of registered air‐
craft per 1,000 people, which is 1.41. The historical average ratio projection yields 3,022 registered
aircraft for Tarrant County by 2024.
Table 2F and Exhibit 2D summarize the registered
The selected forecast tempers growth in
aircraft forecasts for Tarrant County, which present
the near term, due to the continued eco‐
a reasonable planning envelope. Considering his‐
nomic recovery, and then exhibits higher
torical registered aircraft growth for the county,
levels of growth in the later years of the
the constant market share projection of U.S. active
10‐year timeframe.
aircraft serves as the low end of the planning enve‐
lope. The historical average of aircraft per 1,000
residents ratio projection serves as the high boundary and can be attributed to strong historical and
projected population growth in Tarrant County. The selected forecast considers that Tarrant County
registered aircraft will regain market share and maintain a fairly consistent aircraft per capita. The se‐
lected forecast tempers growth in the near term, due to the continued economic recovery, and then
exhibits higher levels of growth in the later years of the 10‐year timeframe. This registered aircraft
projection will be an element considered in the based aircraft forecast to follow.
TABLE 2F
Summary of Registered Aircraft Forecasts
Tarrant County
Constant Market Share Projection of U.S. Active Aircraft
Historical Average Market Share Projection of U.S. Active Aircraft
Constant Ratio Projection per 1,000 County Residents
Historical Average Ratio Projection per 1,000 County Residents
Selected Forecast (AAGR ‐ 1.12%)
Source: Coffman Associates analysis
Chapter Two - 17
2014
2,053
2019
2,081
2,245
2,132
2,810
2,165
2024
2,121
2,288
2,294
3,022
2,300