Arlington Municipal Airport Development Plan Arlington Airport Development Plan | Page 59
GENERAL AVIATION TRENDS
The FAA forecasts the fleet mix and hours flown for single engine piston aircraft, multi‐engine piston
aircraft, turboprops, business jets, piston and turbine helicopters, light sport, experimental, and others
(gliders and balloons). The FAA forecasts “active aircraft,” not total aircraft. An active aircraft is one
that is flown at least one hour during the year. From 2011 through 2013, the FAA undertook an effort
to have all aircraft owners re‐register their aircraft. This effort resulted in a 6.4 percent decrease in the
number of active general aviation aircraft, mostly in the piston category.
After growing rapidly for most of the decade, the demand for business jet aircraft slowed over the past
few years, as the industry was hard hit by the 2008‐2009 economic recession. Nonetheless, the FAA
forecast calls for growth through the long‐term, driven by higher corporate profits and continued con‐
cerns about safety, security, and flight delays. Overall, business aviation is projected to outpace per‐
sonal/recreational use.
In 2013, the FAA estimated there were 141,325 piston‐powered aircraft in the national fleet. The total
number of piston‐powered aircraft in the fleet is forecast to decline by 0.3 percent from 2013‐2034,
resulting in 131,625 by 2034. This includes ‐0.4 percent annually for single engine pistons and ‐0.5 per‐
cent for multi‐engine pistons. Conversely, piston powered helicopters are forecast to grow 1.7 percent
annually through 2034.
Total turbine aircraft are forecast to return to growth in 2014 and have an annual growth rate of 2.6
percent through 2034. The FAA estimates there were 29,110 turbine‐powered aircraft in the national
fleet in 2013, and there will be 49,565 by 2034. This includes annual growth rates of 1.6 percent for
turboprops, 3.0 percent for business jets, and 3.0 percent for turbine helicopters.
While comprising a much smaller portion of the general aviation fleet, experimental aircraft, typically
identified as home‐built aircraft, are projected to grow annually by 1.5 percent through 2034. The FAA
estimates there were 25,305 experimental aircraft in 2013, and these are projected to grow to 34,440
by 2034. Sport aircraft are forecast to grow 4.1 percent annually through the long term, growing from
2,110 in 2013 to 4,880 by 2034. Exhibit 2A presents the historical and forecast U.S. active general avia‐
tion aircraft.
The FAA provides a total operations forecast based on activity at control towers across the U.S. Opera‐
tions are categorized as air carrier, air taxi/commuter, general aviation, and military.
General aviation operations, both local and itinerant, declined significantly as a result of the 2008‐2009
recession and subsequent slow recovery. Through 2034, total general aviation operations are forecast
to grow 0.5 percent annually. Air taxi/commuter operations are forecast to grow by 0.6 percent
through 2023, and then decline slightly through the remainder of the forecast period. Overall, air
taxi/commuter operations are forecast to decline by 0.1 percent annually from 2013 through 2034.
Chapter Two - 4